The Federal Reserve has had similar themes throughout the year reporting in their press releases that net exports continue to soften, inventory investment continues to slow, inflation continues to miss the target rate of 2 percent — blamed on a decline in energy prices, and their maintenance of the Federal Funds Rate at .50 percent, which was changed for the first time in nine years last December. Regardless of the Fed's steady policy throughout the year, the stock market has been everything but steady, dropping close to 400 points last Friday, 300 points during Brexit, and yet the Dow Jones has still reached all-time highs this summer, surpassing $18,500. Although a change in the interest rates from the Fed is imminent, two months before the election is not the appropriate time to add more confusion and uncertainty to the markets.
While the Fed’s policy of “cheap dollars” has successfully revived the housing, stock and bond market from the financial crisis, the United States economy should be able to operate without artificially propping from the Fed. Granted, since the financial crisis the Fed successfully managed to revive the stock, bond and housing sectors by rebuilding the damage done to 401(k) and pensions, and helping government and companies refinance their bonds at lower rates, as well as flooding cheap dollars through the housing market (CNBC). However, the Fed is creating a dependent economy.
The problem with low interest rates and a dependent economy is that it discourages the American economy to save, which presents deeper macroeconomic problems. While it is hard to compare countries savings rate because of different tax laws as well different pension and social security models, which have different impacts on disposable income, we can still find the household savings rate by dividing household savings by household disposable income. In the savings category, the United States next to Great Britain has one of the worst savings rates in the world.
If you look at the United States savings rate since 2010 you will see that it grew 2 percent from 5.61 percent to 7.63 percent from 2010 to 2012, then dropped 3 percent in 2013 and is expected to continually spiral downwards through 2017 dropping to a rate of 3 percent. The problem with these statistics is that it suggests that we will become more dependent on foreign capital, which drives down the value of the dollar.
It is important to note that the value of the dollar reflects total national savings, including household and government spending. In other words, the trade deficit is inversely related with the national savings rate (Feldman). Therefore, fiscal policies that encourage government spending such as $787 billion of fiscal stimulus pins the United States deeper into a savings crisis.
The reason the United States has managed to operate such a huge deficit is because of the willingness of foreign lenders such as China and Germany to lend to the US but these foreign lenders might not always be so willing to lend in the future. When this happens the US will be forced to either dramatically increase revenue through higher tax rates, dramatically cut our spending on military or federal aid programs, or a mixture of both.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the economy has slowly crawled back to health but it still manages to be unsteady. Now more than ever the economy calls for smart fiscal and monetary policies. After the elections are settled the United States citizens should expect the new elected president, Congress, and the Federal Reserve to work together to create a less dependent and more stable economy that encourages the government and households to save more by increasing the interest rates. When this happens the bond, stock, and real estate market will temporarily deflate because of the low interest rates of the past few years. However, the benefits of a more independent economy will outweigh the temporary drop in prices in the long-term.
