Friday night I was sitting in traffic when I heard about what was going on in Turkey. Of course by the time I heard about it the coup was all but finished and the Turkish President was still in control, I said, “how does the military lose a coup?” I have to admit I said it as a bit of a joke, but I soon realized that it was not a funny event. So what happened?

So as we were going about our business on a hot afternoon on July 15, it was nighttime in Istanbul. It was certainly not a quiet night, sects of the Turkish military had decided to try and overthrow the President (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan). Some of the Turkish Air Force and gendarmerie blocked bridges crossing the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, while fighter jets and helicopters were seen over the Capital of Ankara (about 5 hours east of Istanbul).

The President, Erdoğan, was at a vacation home and as soon as he heard the news about an attempted coup he left for Istanbul. He called on his supporters to take to the streets and protest. Throughout the night TV stations were raided and protesters were shot at. In the wee hours of Saturday morning in Turkey (so the beginning of Friday night for us here is the U.S) soldiers involved in the coup abandoned their posts and surrendered. Some saying that they did not know this was an attempted coup, they thought it was just military exercises.

So how does a military coup fail? To start, it was just small sects of the air force and gendarmerie that were involved. So they did not have the backing of the entire military. In fact many other branches outright condemned the coup from the early stages. They also did not have the public's support made evident by the amount of protestors that took to the streets in support of the President.

So now Turkey is in a declared state of emergency for at least three months, where the President and his cabinet can bypass parliament to enact laws, restrict, and suspend rights and freedoms. President Erdoğan says, “all the viruses within the armed forces will be cleansed.” He also says that the state of emergency is to protect democracy and human rights. Now the witch hunt is on for the person or group that instigated this attempted overthrow.

There are a few theories that have been whirling around the rumor mill. Here are some of the most popular:

1. False flag. Meaning that it was a guise by President Erdoğan to grab more power and throw out his opposition.

2. The Kurds/Kemalists convinced Gulenists into doing the coup, knowing that it would fail and knowing that it would lead to a purge of Gulenists from public offices.

3. The AKP Party, Turkey’s leading political party, had been planning to arrest a bunch of Gulenists within the military and government. So Gulen supporters decided to plan a coup, but the raid was planned sooner than expected, so the coup was rushed. Which would account for its sloppiness and failure.

President Erdoğan is blaming it on Fethullah Gulen. Saying that he arranged the coup so he could come back to Turkey and take power. Gulen and Erdoğan have a long history of being at odds with each other. Even though Gulen is in exile in Pennsylvania. Gulen, of course, denies the assertions from the President of Turkey. Erdoğan is calling for the U.S to extradite Gulen, but Secretary of State John Kerry is refusing until there is solid evidence Gulen was involved.

Back in Turkey there is no hesitation to take Gulenists out of positions of power.

Right now there is no telling who is telling the truth and why the coup took place. I suspect bits of truth will seep out in the coming months. And who knows how long the state of emergency will last and what will happen next.