The 2016 Presidential election has proved to go against traditional voting patterns, poll results, and even debate discussion; but one particular hook of this race is the emergence of popularity of the third parties among voters and national surveys, specifically among millennials. In the past, third-party candidates have lost whatever support they happened to gain by the time of the first primary debate, but this year, the debate turned more people towards Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein of the Green party. In fact, according to a poll in May of 2016 by The Morning Consult, Johnson is polling at 10% compared to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, at 38%, and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, at 35%. These numbers remained relatively consistent, causing Johnson to fall just 5% short of the 15% needed to be present in the primary debates; but that didn't stop him from trying to advocate for a slot despite his absence in the debate. Johnson currently polls at an average of 7.5% nationally among surveys from various news sources, and the Morning Consult and he are projected by FiveThirtyEight to receive 6.2% of votes in the general election. Among millennials specifically, 15% support Johnson as opposed to the 13% that are usually likely to vote.
While these numbers change daily, there is something to be said about the presence of a third-party in this election, especially considering the attraction of millennials to the third-party candidates, like Johnson and Stein, this creates a problem for the Democratic and Republican parties. Whether or not it represents a shift in the system or a change of values among younger Americans is up to interpretation, both scenarios lead to the ultimate question: Will voting for a third-party candidate throw away your vote?
Frankly, it depends on how you look at the situation. In past elections, specifically Gore v. Bush (2000), we see the effects of a spoiler, or split vote, meaning a third-party candidate pulled votes away from a primary party candidate and affected the popular vote. Had Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate in the 2000 election, been unnoticed by the media and general voter population, Al Gore would have most likely won the popular vote. However, because supporters of Gore and Nader split, they almost equaled each other out, granting Bush the presidency in 2000. Currently, this is a concern for Clinton and her campaign; they are now working on attracting millennial voters with the help of Bernie Sanders, her former competitor who is extremely popular among millennials, and Senator Elizabeth Warren. Millennials now represent the largest generation in the United States and without their support, one of the major parties will suffer significantly in the general election results. Of course, it all depends on voter turn-out; so, who will you vote for?
