No one saw it coming, the polls missed the mark, the experts were wrong and the United Kingdom left the European Union. On Thursday, 51.9 percent of voters in the U.K. chose to side with the angry rhetoric of British Exit proponents and effectively cut itself off from the largest free trading group in the world. As the vote counts trickled in, the value of the pound sterling cratered, stock markets crashed and Prime Minister David Cameron resigned. These immediate shocks were bad for the U.K., yet the long term effects offer no ray of hope. Every region of Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU and will likely vote to break with Britain, shattering the United Kingdom.
Meanwhile in Scotland, Donald Trump, on the greens of his newly renovated golf course congratulated U.K. voters by saying, “They took back control of their country.” And while apparently unwilling to travel with foreign policy advisers, he made some strong correlations between the U.K. effort to Leave and his own campaign for president. “Come November, the American people will have the chance to re-declare their independence. Americans will have a chance to vote for trade, immigration and foreign policies that put our citizens first.”
While Trump’s reasoning may be flawed, his conclusions are difficult to disregard. There are major similarities between the Leave and Trump campaigns. Both were fueled by hatred and fear of immigrants. For Americans, the border with Mexico looms large, while Britons fear the steady flow of migrants and refugees. Both were symbolized by charismatic leaders who play fast and loose with the facts. Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, and Trump both use vulgarity and anger to gather supporters and promote their cause. Both efforts are characterized as an attempt to reestablish their homeland’s lost glory. Trump declares that Americans must “make America great again” and Johnson argues voters must “put Britain first.” Most critically however, both Leave and Trump count on the fears and insecurities of angry voters who aren’t really bothered with knowing the facts.
All this should be taken as a serious warning sign for the Clinton campaign. Hillary and Co. who will be facing a narrow polling margin in November and are seeking to combat the same angry fear-mongering rhetoric. All this while assuaging American fears of a declining economy, rising immigration and widespread political discontent. As outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron knows best, fighting to defend a system many see as broken, while trying to teach economics 101 from the campaign trail is a losing battle. Many see Hillary as disconnected while she struggles to find a message that resonates with voters. It is possible that in a time of national self-focus and insecurity, Hillary’s message to keep going on the trail blazed by President Obama will never resonate.
In spite of this, the similarities between England’s vote and America’s election, and the challenges faced by the Hillary campaign, what happens across the pond does not dictate the outcomes of the US election. In the hours after polling stations closed in the United Kingdom, the most Googled topic by Britons was “what is the EU.” While many voters in the United Kingdom may have been unaware of the consequences of their vote, that does not have to be the case in the United States. 21st century America cannot be defined by the unwillingness of her people to understand their vote. Don’t vote first and ask questions later.
