One of many people’s main criticisms, as well as my own, of Donald Trump in this election is that he is rarely specific about the things that he would actually do as president. Sure, sometimes he mentions the wall and banning Muslims from entering the country, but other than that, we are more often than not left in the dark.
In terms of his foreign policy, we usually hear him say things like “America first” which, for some, is enough, but for me, it is worrisome for a few reasons. It is vague, hyper-nationalist, borderline fascist and horribly dangerous. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, which I almost never do, “America first” would be a welcomed foreign policy for many Americans that want to remain out of war and to keep Americans safe.
But recently, Trump has gotten specific about some of his foreign policy, specifically about NATO.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a military alliance between the United States, Canada and almost all of Europe, created in 1949 in attempt to deter any attacks from the then Soviet Union during the Cold War. If the Soviet Union were to attack any country in Europe, then the United States and all other members would intervene.
Of the 28 members in NATO today, some countries, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, are former members of the Soviet Union. The alliance has helped keep peace in Europe for many years and has responded to conflicts like the Bosnian War and the 9-11 attacks on the United States. So, it is needless to say that NATO is a very important alliance for the United States and any threat to it would be a threat to peace in Europe.
In a "New York Times" interview, Trump was asked whether or not the “new members of NATO, including the members in the Baltics (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania) can count on the United States to come to their military aid if they were attacked by Russia” to which he replied, “If they fulfill their obligations to us, the answer is yes.”
“And if not?” they asked.
“I’m not saying if not,” Trump said.
What does he mean? Well he is probably referring to the agreement of all NATO countries to contribute 2 percent of their GDP to their national defense. As of now, only five members are meeting that threshold. President Obama has even criticized member countries for not fulfilling their obligations but Trump is the only politician, ever, to suggest that such actions would prevent the U.S. from acting to protect members of NATO.
Now, you may be thinking, “But why is it a bad thing if we say we won’t protect members of NATO if they don’t pay their fair share?”
Well, NATO is not the most successful military alliance in the history of the world because each country meets their economic obligations. NATO has been so successful because of a thing called “credible commitment.”
There is no organization that can force the US to fight to protect for its members. The power of NATO comes from other countries’ perceptions of the United States’ membership and its commitment to the alliance. In order to prevent any conflict from occurring, countries like Russia need to believe that we will fight to protect member countries under any circumstance, even if it causes a world war.
Now you may ask, “But will Russia actually attack those countries?”
Well, maybe. In 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, annexing the its southern Crimea. This was six years after Russia’s invasion of Georgia. This is why NATO is so important right now. That is also why the New York Times asked him specifically about the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Russia is becoming more and more aggressive on its borders and if Putin sees the U.S. wavering in its commitment to protect members of NATO, he may be more likely to act against these countries. If this were to happen, then it would threaten the safety of these countries, their independence, the existence of NATO itself, peace in Europe and may even lead to another world war.
All this and the Republican nominee for president has just invited him to try.
