As I’m sure no one knows (or cares) the 2018 Formula 1 Season begins this Sunday March 25 in Australia. A few weeks back I wrote an article discussing the liveries of each cars, and now that pre-season testing has finished, I’m back to go over the results.

The big question after the end of last season was whether or not Scuderia Ferrari could ever win another championship. The winningest team in Formula 1 history was ahead of Mercedes at the midway point of the season last year, however they decided to completely fall apart and all but gift the championship to Mercedes in the second part of the season. Most of this came from their incompetence prohibiting them from making midseason developments to the car, while the other parts came from untimely driver errors and mechanical failures.

Ferrari made a big statement by being pacey during testing. They set the fastest lap time in several test sessions, including the final session where Kimi Raikkonen did a 1:17.2 on the softest tires available. Although they are showing strong pace, fans alike are counting them out already. This is mainly due to the fact that there is now a new challenger at the top, Red Bull. Red Bull suffered from regression after winning 4 straight championships from 2010-2013, but these test sessions prove they are back. One of the most significant changes is a brand-new aerodynamics package designed by F1 genius Adrian Newey. Taking the difference in tire selection into account, Red Bull seems right on pace with Ferrari and that looks promising for the future.

Before I go on, I’d like to point out that there can be psychological games going on in F1 testing. While teams want to make sure that their new toy for the 2018 season works properly, there have been instances of sandbagging, or deliberately driving slower than the car can go in order to not give too much away in testing. Both Red Bull and Ferrari are most likely doing this, however no one did this to the same extent as Mercedes in testing. Both Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas put in large amounts of laps during testing, over 1,000 total, but it is widely assumed that they did not get the most out of their new Mercedes W09. Looking at the last day of testing where the fastest lap was Raikkonen’s 1:17.2, the fastest Mercedes lap was Bottas’s 1:18.8. Although this was 1.6 seconds slower, Bottas was on tires four compounds slower. Pirelli’s testing has shown that there is a time difference of up to .8 seconds per compound, so make of that what you will. Combine that data with the fact that teams sandbag throughout testing and it becomes clear that comparing the frontrunners now based on lap time data is meaningless.

The most optimistic part of testing comes in the midfield of cars, where there are several notable teams. Although several teams stand out here, no team stands out more than McLaren. After ditching the abysmal Honda power unit for a Renault one this year, their lap times have gone up considerably. Compared to their testing lap times from last year, they are about 3.5 seconds faster, which is tremendous. This means they solved their lack of pace problem and their car has the potential to not be absolutely wretched this year. I said potential because they failed to solve their other problem – reliability. They used more engines than anyone during these testing sessions, and still suffered the same reliability woes as they did when they had Honda. Unless they fix these problems quickly, Fernando Alonso will now be running slightly faster in the race when his car breaks down.

Speaking of Honda, after McLaren ditched them for Renault last season, they originally turned to Sauber. Sauber responded by running for the hills. Then they turned to Toro Rosso, who agreed to take them on. Everyone thought Toro Rosso would be the new joke of Formula 1, but it appears Honda have fixed their problems. Rookies Pierre Gasly and Brendon Hartley put in a large number of laps during testing and have showed they now have solid pace. They are 1.4 seconds faster than they were last year when they had Renault power, and they completed over 800 mostly incident free laps. Honda has the potential to get spectacular revenge at McLaren. This should be good.

Another pleasant surprise from the midfield is America’s F1 team, Haas. With new performance tweaks and better Ferrari engine than they had last season, they look very promising. They are over 2.1 seconds faster than they were last season and are poised to really make some noise this season. These improvements come from, as stated before, better tweaks from Ferrari. They have adapted new aerodynamics designs, new technology, as well as a better engine. Having Haas fighting with Toro Rosso, Renault, McLaren, Williams, and Force India should make for a more interesting midfield. Especially since these midfield cars will be a bit closer to the front runners this season.

The more astute of you will realize that I have omitted a team to this point. Sauber has one goal for this season, and that is to get out of the basement of Formula 1. With a few notable exceptions, they have been a carpet for every other team in the sport for the last several years. This year is poised to be different as they took on Alfa Romeo as a new partner. In addition to a gorgeous car that I referenced in my last article, the new Alfa Romeo partnership is poised to get Sauber out of said basement and into a bigger fight with the midfield. Charles LeClerc, reigning F2 champion, looks very promising in leading this charge. Partnering the experienced Swede in Marcus Ericsson, Sauber looks poised to fix themselves this year, and they delivered in testing. They were the second most improved team from last year, about 2.6 seconds faster from last year.

The larger fight at the top, combined with the rest of the teams seeming to be closer this year than ever before makes this season more promising than some of the ones in recent memory. With the season opening up later this week with practice on Friday March 23, fans don’t have to wait very long to see all of this action. Every team in F1 is eons better than they were last year, drivers are more motivated now that there is even more ability to be competitive. A long season sits ahead of us, and even reigning champion Lewis Hamilton wants more competition to keep the sport relevant and interesting. I hope he gets his wish and there is a six-way title fight compared to the paltry duels fans have been given in recent years. Knowing my luck, everything I said here will be wrong, Mercedes will continue their reign of dominance, Ferrari will prolapse on race circuits all over the world, and Sauber will stoop even further into the basement. At least I’m a Mercedes fan.