With the biggest night in film fast approaching, I’ve decided to tap into my inner gambler. After all, we all love to make predictions. We do it in sports all the time, and then we bet on it. Well this year I want to bet on the Oscars. So, here are my picks to win the major categories at this year’s Oscars, and I’m willing to put money on my picks.

Best Picture: La La Land

Every year there always one film that seems to be a powerhouse at the Oscars. Two years ago it was Birdman, last year it was Spotlight, and this year it’s La La Land. It’s got all the momentum heading into big night, racking up Golden Globes, Screen Actor Guild Awards, and many others. I’m not discounting any of the other nominated films, they all great, it’s just that I don’t see any of them stealing the La La Land thunder.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: Denzel Washington for Fences

The year’s race for Best Lead Actor reminds me a lot of the race from two years ago. Michael Keaton for a long time was considered a lock to win for his performance in Birdman, but when awards season came around, Eddie Redmayne started to win for The Theory of Everything, and gained momentum at the right time. This year, when Manchester by the Sea premiered, Casey Affleck was praised and called the early favorite to win. However, look back to the SAG Awards and you’ll see that Denzel quietly won the award for Outstand Performance. While I wouldn’t count Affleck out, Washington has the all the momentum right now, and during the twenty-three years the SAG Awards have existed, only four times has the SAG award winner not won the Oscar. The last time it happened was all the way back in 2003.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: Emma Stone for La La Land

This race isn’t as close as the race for Best Lead Actor. Emma Stone has already won the SAG Award and the Golden Globe this year, and she should win the Oscar. However, you can never count out Meryl Streep; after all she has three Oscars on her shelf for a reason. Streep runs into a problem when you consider the movie she’s nominated for. As great as Florence Foster Jenkins is, it doesn’t have nearly as much buzz as La La Land. Plus, Stone was wonderful and gave an emotional performance that certain deserves the Oscar.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Mahershala Ali for Moonlight

This is without a doubt the hardest race to call. You could make a winning case for every one of the nominated performances. Jeff Bridges gave his best performance since finally winning his first Oscar for Crazy Heart. Dev Patel proved that his performance in Slumdog Millionaire wasn’t a fluke. Lucas Hedges, who’s only twenty, gave an emotional performance in Manchester by the Sea. Michael Shannon transformed himself into his character in Nocturnal Animals. However, I think Mahershala Ali is the favorite after his SAG Award win. He gave a powerful performance in one of the most important movies of the year, Moonlight, but don’t be surprised if someone else sneaks in and wins it.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Viola Davis for Fences

This is the easiest one to call. Again, I’m not trying to take anything away from the excellent performances by the other four nominees, but there’s no way Davis doesn’t win this award. She’s commands the screen, and steals scenes from Denzel Washington, which is no easy feat.

Best Directing: Damien Chazelle for La La Land

More often than not, the director of the best picture wins best director. While this isn’t always the case, I still think it’s Chazelle’s year. He pulled out two Oscar nominated performances from his leads, and the song and dance scenes are excellently directed. Looking at his competition, La La Land has more buzz than Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. As for Mel Gibson, he’s lucky to be directing again, so I doubt that The Academy is ready to award he with an Oscar, no matter how good Hacksaw Ridge was. Denis Villeneuve is the next big director and will without a doubt win an Oscar at some point in his career, but The Academy loves movies about Hollywood, and I think they’re going to award La La Land as much as they can.