In an article about decision making, found in the Harvard Business Insider, John S. Hammond says the overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. We make decisions all day, everyday, maybe you realize it and maybe you don't. You choose what to wear, what to eat, at what time you're leaving your house.
But what is wrong with thinking we are always right? After a conversation with my dad, he asked my brothers and me if we thought we were more attractive than the average person, two out of the three of us answered yes. Then he asked, if we were more intelligent than average humans, again, two out of the three answered yes. Out of the 7 billion people in the world, humans tend to think that they are more attractive or more intelligent than average.
So what does this have to do with decision making? If we think that we are more intelligent than the average human we tend to believe that we are superior to anyone who is not as intelligent as we are. Therefore, we tend to think that we are right most of the times, because sometimes we need to make mistakes because we are human. We even tend think that we make less mistakes than the average human.
This becomes a vicious cycle. Who would think there would be traps when you make a decision? I am not saying that having confidence is a wrong thing. It is really good to have confidence in yourself. It starts being wrong when you become overconfident.
As students, we constantly fall in this trap in class. We are overconfident about our memorization abilities, or our critical thinking abilities. Only to find out after the test that we didn't know as much or we do not remember the ideas as well thought we did. We tend to stop studying to early because we are overestimating how much we studied.
The overconfidence trap is also shown in other settings, doctors assessing their abilities to diagnose their patients, debate teams partaking a tournament, soccer fans betting for their team, etc.
So as college students, what should we do to avoid this trap?
When studying ask a friend to quiz you on the material. That way you can have a second opinion of what you have really learned and what you need to work on.
Mix things up, do not study vocabulary words in the same order, or only their definitions. Try to change the way you study.
What we should do in relationships? Admit that we are not going to be always right, it does not matter if you think you are more attractive than average, or more intelligent than average, your partner probably thinks the same thing.
What should we do in life? Remember that a lot of people fall in the same trap as you, they overestimate their abilities.
