Sunday, January 28th is music’s biggest night. The 2018 Grammy Awards will be an exciting ceremony, as R&B and hip-hop take center stage this year. From JAY-Z to Childish Gambino, from SZA to Bruno Mars, many popular musicians are hoping to take home some big prizes. I’ve taken the big four categories and six categories from R&B and rap and given them my predictions below:
Record of the Year:
- “Redbone” by Childish Gambino
- “Despacito” by Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber
- “The Story of O.J.” by JAY-Z
- “HUMBLE.” by Kendrick Lamar
- “24K Magic” by Bruno Mars
This category is difficult to predict, even when isolating just the production of these songs. One song that definitely won’t win is “Despacito,” as I feel like that nomination was a shoe-in because of the song’s popularity. Objectively speaking, the production of the other four songs is much better.
As much as I love “The Story of O.J” for its message when looking at just the production, I don’t think it quite matches up to most of the other songs in this category. Of the remaining songs, any of the three could win, in my opinion, but if I look at complexity and quality of the production, my favorite has to be “Redbone.” It wasn’t as popular as some of the other songs in this category, but with Donald Glover and the incredibly talented Ludwig Goransson as producers, it has to take away the biggest production award of the night.
Will Win: “Redbone”
Could Win: “HUMBLE.”
Should Win: “Redbone”
Album of the Year:
- “Awaken, My Love!” by Childish Gambino
- “4:44” by JAY-Z
- “DAMN.” by Kendrick Lamar
- “Melodrama” by Lorde
- “24K Magic” by Bruno Mars
This category is often predicted by looking at the other nominations the artists have received, along with the popularity of the albums. By those standards, any of these albums could win, but I would eliminate “Melodrama” immediately because of R&B and rap being pushed into the big categories this year. And as complex and brilliant as “Awaken, My Love!” was, I do not believe it will win over the remaining three nominees. Lastly, while “24K Magic” has tons of nominations in the R&B categories, I ultimately think Kendrick and Hove will duke it out for the win. Even though I liked “4:44” more as an album, Kendrick is the big leader of the current generation of rap, and many thought he was snubbed when “To Pimp a Butterfly” did not win album of the year two years ago. It’s finally Kendrick’s time, so this category is his to lose.
Will Win: “DAMN.”
Could Win: “4:44”
Should Win: “4:44”
Song of the Year:
- “Despacito” by Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee ft. Justin Bieber
- “4:44” by JAY-Z
- “Issues” by Julia Michaels
- “1-800-273-8255” by Logic ft. Alessia Cara and Khalid
- “That’s What I Like” by Bruno Mars
When looking at songwriting, content is probably the number one thing people judge. That’s why I’m skeptical about “Despacito” and “That’s What I Like” having any chance at winning. They’re not songs that we were needing as a society. However, the extreme popularity of “Despacito” could actually elevate it to the point where it wins this award. “Issues” doesn’t really stand a chance since there is not much hype surrounding that song or Julia Michaels. And while “4:44” is an awesome song, it was a personal artistic milestone for JAY-Z rather than a song the public needed. If there’s one song that stands out from the bunch, it’s “1-800.” Not only does it have two out of the five Best New Artist nominees this year, it is a song about an important subject, and Logic will be performing it with suicide attempt survivors on the show. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. “1-800” seems like the one to beat here.
Will Win: “1-800-273-8255”
Could Win: “Despacito”
Should Win: “1-800-273-8255”
Best New Artist:
- Alessia Cara
- Khalid
- Lil Uzi Vert
- Julia Michaels
- SZA
Lil Uzi Vert has had a fantastic year with his VMA for “Song of the Summer” and the commercial success of his debut album “Luv Is Rage 2,” but with only one other Grammy nomination this year, he will not take home this trophy. Julia Michaels has some momentum behind her with her Song of the Year nomination, but in the end, this award will probably go to either Alessia Cara, SZA, or Khalid. Cara released some very conscious songs this year and was featured on a Song of the Year nomination, but she does not have as much momentum behind her as the two most famous fresh faces of R&B this year, SZA and Khalid. Khalid knocked it out of the park commercially with his debut album and won Best New Artist at the VMA’s. But if there’s someone who deserves it the most, it’s SZA. Her songs have an incredible amount of replay value, she’s been a songwriter for Rihanna and Beyoncé for years, and her debut album “Ctrl” is an instant R&B classic. It’s a tough battle between Khalid and SZA for this award.
Will Win: Khalid
Could Win: SZA
Should Win: SZA
Best R&B Performance:
- “Get You” by Daniel Caesar ft. Kali Uchis
- “Distraction” by Kehlani
- “High” by Ledisi
- “That’s What I Like” by Bruno Mars
- “The Weekend” by SZA
Bruno Mars seems to be the one to beat in this category. His energy, powerhouse vocals, and swagger seem to carry through on “That’s What I Like,” as if he’s performing right in front of me. That record by itself displays Mars at his A-game so much that it almost entirely blows the competition out of the water. However, Daniel Caesar and Ledisi also show off their vocal chops on their respective songs, and Kehlani brings her own vibe and energy to “Distraction.” However, Mars’s only true competition is SZA, whose emotion and passion on “The Weekend” are emoted very clearly through her edgy R&B voice. Still, this award is Mars’s to lose.
Will Win: “That’s What I Like”
Could Win: “The Weekend”
Should Win: “That’s What I Like”
Best R&B Song:
- “First Began” by PJ Morton
- “Location” by Khalid
- “Redbone” by Childish Gambino
- “Supermodel” by SZA
- “That’s What I Like” by Bruno Mars
While SZA, Khalid, and PJ Morton are all greatly talented and have fantastic songs nominated, the competition here is between Childish Gambino and Bruno Mars. What’s interesting is that “Redbone” and “That’s What I Like” also appear in the big four categories, but are up for different awards. While “Redbone” is nominated for Record of the Year, “That’s What I Like” is nominated for Song of the Year. In the end, though, “Redbone” revives a 70’s retro sound and is a song that is unlike anything Donald Glover has ever released. “That’s What I Like” also brings back a nostalgic funk, yet it does sound like something that’s within Mars’s comfort zone. “Redbone” will probably be the ultimate victor.
Will Win: “Redbone”
Could Win: “That’s What I Like”
Should Win: “Redbone”
Best R&B Album:
- “Freudian” by Daniel Caesar
- “Let Love Rule” by Ledisi
- “24K Magic” by Bruno Mars
- “Gumbo” by PJ Morton
- “Feel the Real” by Musiq Soulchild
This category is very easy to predict. Looking at the number of other nominations he has received this year in both the R&B and big four categories, there is no way Bruno Mars isn’t going to walk away with the win. The only upset in this category that could happen is a Daniel Caesar win, but since he has only just started his commercial success and is not nominated for Best New Artist, I doubt that it’s actually going to happen. Mars created a well-produced, well-written album with multiple hits and lots of critical acclaims. This award has to go to him.
Will Win: “24K Magic”
Could Win: “Freudian”
Should Win: “24K Magic”
Best Rap Performance:
- “Bounce Back” by Big Sean
- “Bodak Yellow” by Cardi B
- “4:44” by JAY-Z
- “HUMBLE.” by Kendrick Lamar
- “Bad and Boujee” by Migos ft. Lil Uzi Vert
This is an interesting category, and perhaps my favorite one out of the ones I’m reviewing. I love to see both Migos and Cardi B nominated for their performances. 2017 was an amazing year for them, and the Grammy nods really top it off well, but I don’t think they can hold their own against Sean, Kendrick, and Hove. While “Bounce Back” is an amazing song with some of the best lyricism Sean has ever demonstrated, he doesn’t have any nominations in the big four categories, so I don’t think he will walk away with this prize either. That leaves Kendrick and JAY-Z. Hove’s “4:44” is one of his best songs and a very emotional and personal record for him. I would love for him to win. But I think Kendrick’s Big Sean diss and commercial success on “HUMBLE.” will give him the trophy in the end.
Will Win: “HUMBLE.”
Could Win: “4:44”
Should Win: “HUMBLE.”
Best Rap Song:
- “Bodak Yellow” by Cardi B
- “Chase Me” by Danger Mouse ft. Run the Jewels and Big Boi
- “HUMBLE.” by Kendrick Lamar
- “Sassy” by Rapsody
- “The Story of O.J.” by JAY-Z
I once again love to see Bodak Yellow be nominated in this category. Cardi B’s twist on Kodak Black’s flow and the song’s popularity definitely deserve some credit. I’m happier, however, to see Rapsody get recognition as well. “Laila’s Wisdom” was one of the best albums of last year, and for “Sassy” to receive a nomination is more than appropriate. While “Chase Me” is a fine song and Run the Jewels has been consistent for a while, I don’t think the song is going to win given that Danger Mouse and “Chase Me” have received no other nominations. The battle in this category is between Hove and Kendrick once again. While “The Story of O.J.” has a better message, I do believe that the production and the iconic hook on “HUMBLE.” will get Kendrick to win this.
Will Win: “HUMBLE.”
Could Win: “The Story of O.J.”
Should Win: “Sassy”
Best Rap Album:
- “4:44” by JAY-Z
- “DAMN.” by Kendrick Lamar
- “Culture” by Migos
- “Laila’s Wisdom” by Rapsody
- “Flower Boy” by Tyler, the Creator
For my last category, I just want to say that I’m super happy that these are the five albums nominated this year. They were all in my Top 10 Hip-Hop Albums of 2017 list, and I can’t wait to see what all of these artists do next. While they all deserve the recognition, I only think that Hove and Kendrick have any shot at winning this award. “Culture” and “Flower Boy” were both albums with a significant amount of impact and a display of the evolution of Migos and Tyler, respectively, but they do not measure up to the other three albums in this category. While I would love for Rapsody to win Album of the Year, she was commercially much less successful than JAY-Z and Kendrick. So it’s down to the two of them. I think that whichever album wins this award also is going to win Album of the Year, so in that case, it would be “DAMN.” While I thought “4:44” was better sonically and thematically, the impact and commercial success of “DAMN.” cannot be denied. Kung Fu Kenny will take home this award.
Will Win: “DAMN.”
Could Win: “4:44”
Should Win: “Laila’s Wisdom”
Alright, that’s it! Thanks so much for checking out my 2018 Grammy Award predictions, and make sure to tune in Sunday night!
