Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2016 presidential election, and I still can’t believe it.
Donald Trump’s primary campaign was like an awful train wreck that I couldn't help but look at. He alienated countless minority groups, sparked numerous protests, and insulted many leaders, including those in his own political party. He currently has the highest unfavorable ratings of any presidential nominee in the last 50 years, and struggles to garner support from independents and many moderate Republicans. In every sense of the word, Donald Trump is an unusual presidential nominee. I am certainly not a Donald Trump supporter, but his rise in politics is hard not to watch.
Every step of the way, pundits doubted his legitimacy. At first, many thought his campaign was a joke, but then it kept going. Then, many thought there was no way his campaign would last past Iowa, but then he gained steam. Finally, many hoped (myself included) there would be a last ditch effort to stop him at the Republican National Convention and again, the Donald barreled through, confirming his current place as the presumptive nominee. This left me and many others wondering – what in the world just happened?
For journalists, political scientists, and interested followers of politics, this is an incredibly interesting situation to dissect. Some argue that Trump is the nominee that the Republican Party deserves, and that he has willingly tapped into the underlying racism and authoritarianism present in the electorate. Others argue that Trump’s message has resonated with the American public, and that he is successful because of his ability to connect to the people. These may account for some of his success, but certainly not all. In reality, Donald Trump’s success has resulted from a number of political missteps and miscalculations by the leaders of the Republican Party.
Time after time, the Republican Party has misdiagnosed its problems and miscalculated what it would take to take down Donald Trump. The party’s problems go back before Trump announced his candidacy, but the real struggles started when he announced his candidacy for the Presidency just one year ago. Since then, the Party has had four main miscalculations that have contributed to the rise of Trump.
The first miscalculation of the Republican Party was that they did not take Trump’s candidacy seriously. He was seen as a fringe candidate, someone who would garner support from the extreme right of the party. From the very start Donald Trump was underestimated by the establishment of the Republican Party, which only bolstered his reputation as a political outsider that couldn’t be bought. This first error would set the pace for the rest of the election.
Second, the Republican primary had far too many candidates. By the Iowa caucuses, Trump only 20 to 30 percent of the vote. This usually isn’t enough to be the leading candidate. However, Trump’s opposition was split up into small parcels. The establishment vote was split between candidates like Bush, Rubio, Kasich and Christie - the religious right couldn’t decide between Cruz, Carson, Walker, Santorum and Huckabee – and the fans of political outsiders could either go for Paul or Fiorina. How is a candidate supposed to beat Trump if they can’t even consolidate their portion of the party? The problem of having too many candidates ultimately resulted from too much money in politics. With any billionaire able to fund any small-name politician, it became too easy to be a presidential candidate. With this amount of money going around, the Republican Party couldn’t control the number of candidates, and therefore couldn’t control the opposition to the man they were trying to stop.
The third major miscalculation by the Republican Party was taking Mitt Romney and using him as their voice for the #NeverTrump movement. On May 3rd in the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah, Mitt Romney gave a speech that inspired the anti-Trump movement. After re-watching Romney’s speech, I am fully convinced that he was right, and that Trump is a ridiculous candidate who does not deserve the Presidency. While I agreed with nearly everything Romney said, I do agree it was neither the time nor place for it. Romney’s speech gave Trump everything he could ask for. Trump’s supporters liked him for being anti-establishment, and Mitt Romney coming out against him only bolstered his support among these voters. Also, this move seemed like a last ditch effort to bring Trump down (which it was). This appeared weak and Trump’s supporters jumped on it. While Romney was well-intentioned, and I believe he was right, his words only hardened the resolve of Trump’s supporters and every voter who was anti-establishment.
The fourth and final miscalculation made by the Republican Party was backing Ted Cruz as the leader of the #NeverTrump movement. In backing Ted Cruz, the Republican establishment supported perhaps the only candidate more unlikable and more polarizing than the Donald himself. Many on the left even considered Cruz to be a worse candidate than Trump. When they decided on Cruz, the establishment saw he was closest to Trump in the polls, but polling didn’t tell the same story. Cruz had more support, but John Kasich was far more favorable than Cruz. As of April, Cruz had a net favorability of negative 18, whereas Kasich had a net favorability of positive 19. Every poll at the time showed Cruz losing to Democratic frontrunner Hillary while every poll showed Kasich beating Hillary soundly, especially in his home state of Ohio. Quite frankly, Ted Cruz had reached the ceiling of his support, and John Kasich was the better choice to stop Trump. However, the Republican leadership was short sided and did not have the foresight to understand this.
Overall, Donald Trump’s success should not be attributed to his skills or his message, but rather to the miscalculations of the Republican Party. Quite simply, they failed in their goal to stop Trump. We will only understand how astounding this election will be when November comes and moderates and independents will be voting for Hillary Clinton as the more likable of the two candidates. Donald Trump’s nomination is a warning sign for the current state of politics in America. Let’s hope both Republicans and Democrats learn from his rise, and can prevent the rise of another candidate like him. Until then, I will certainly be watching every step of the way.
