On the 13th of November 2015, over 100 people were killed in several terrorist attacks across Paris and Saint-Denis, France. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attacks and it is clear that France, the United States, and the many European Union countries are considering their options for a response. As the President of the French Republic Francois Hollande tweeted after the attacks, "Facing terror, there is a nation that knows how to defend, able to mobilize its forces and, once again, will defeat the terrorists." Hollande has since declared a state of emergency and ordered all French borders to be closed.
The most likely response to these terrorist attacks will be war. I think, most likely, the French Republic will follow the United States' example and employ fleets of unmanned drones and strategic bombers, they will also probably expand government surveillance. Security is key to the general welfare of the people.
There is no excuse for these atrocities. In the next few week,s we'll watch live as news reporters and analysts try to understand why this happened, what the motivation behind these terrorists were, etc. The conclusion more often that not is simply "terrorists hate freedom", "terrorists hate the West." But why? What would drive any person to commit their lives to slaughter and massacre? Is it an extreme devotion to a religion of war? Is it a result of social dysfunction or a tribal conception of justice?
Bill Maher, the host of the HBO show "Real Time with Bill Maher" and former host of "Politically Incorrect," asked his panelists on the night of the attacks: "why do they hate us?" Maher, who is known for his strong opinion against Islam and was once called a racist by Ben Affleck over the subject, claimed that the main motivation for terrorist attacks is the occupation of Muslim lands by Coalition forces. "Here's a crazy idea," Maher said, "why don't we get out of Muslim lands?" One witness from the attacks said she heard the attackers yell, “What you are doing in Syria, you are going to pay for it now.”
In total, the U.S. has conducted 2,642 strikes in Syria. Russia has begun bombing ISIS targets in Syria as well. To top it off, recent airstrikes via drones have (most likely) killed ISIS beheading specialist "Jihadi John" and another strike killed the leader of ISIS in Libya, "Abu Nabil". With so many of them dead and so many of their cities destroyed, surely the Islamic State will crumble soon. Who could oppose the incredible air forces of Russia and the United States? Whoever tried would get bombed back to the stone age.
But what if your opponents have already been in the stone age for the last 100 years? What if the worst your opponents can do is try and kill as many of your innocent unarmed civilians in surprise attacks as they can?
In 2011, Cornell University's Southeast Asia program published a study on the effect of U.S. bombing in the Vietnam War. The study shows that "the aerial bombing of Vietnamese civilians by U.S. and allied forces was an ineffective, wrongheaded strategy that drove neutral citizens into the arms of the Viet Cong." Similarly, the U.S. bombings of civilians in the Middle East may be driving otherwise neutral citizens in the Middle East into the arms of terrorist cells.
In the wake of god awful tragedies like this massacre, it is important to understand what most terrorists want...a long dragging land-war that inflicts suffering en masse to all participants and bystanders. An invasion of "Western crusaders" into Muslim lands only validates their beliefs that a war is necessary and the only solution, which they can use to recruit more members and push propaganda.
If ISIS is completely destroyed, whatever survivors are left will disperse into the general population or recede into obscurity for years, only to emerge later when coalition forces have left.
In 2001, the United States made the mistake to embroil themselves in a war against terror in Afghanistan, and then again in Iraq in 2003. The biggest mistake was believing that one could defeat "terror" through a full-blown invasion and proliferate bombing campaign. What the longest war in U.S. history has taught us is that it is impossible to destroy all terrorists without paying the exorbitant costs of mass-destruction.
Someone has to pay for what was done in Paris and Saint-Denis; that is certain. My fear is that the soldiers of France and the common people of the Middle East will be paying the most of this debt. Even with all of our sophisticated laser-guided bombs and heat-seeking missiles, there will always be innocent lives lost in the game of war.
