So this past Saturday, political focus honed in on both Nevada and South Carolina when the Democrats caucused in Nevada and the Republicans held a primary in South Carolina. The big winners of the night? For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders 52.6 percent (19 delegates) to 47.3 percent (15 delegates). For the Republicans, Donald Trump trumped the competition, winning 32.5 percent of the vote and all 50 delegates. Here's what we learned coming out of Nevada and South Carolina:
1. Bernie Sanders has made progress, but he still has a long way to go.
The close race in Iowa and his dominating performance in New Hampshire gave Bernie Sanders some much-needed momentum, and he managed to shrink the margin in Nevada. However, the demographic battle only gets harder from here. New Hampshire and Iowa are number two and three respectively the whitest and most-liberal democratic electorates. Nevada, South Carolina, and the barrage of Southern states that vote on Super Tuesday (March 1st) are less so. Exit polls in Nevada show that African Americans favored Clinton to Sanders 76 to 22 percent. Though she doesn't have Obama-level support (which was up in the 80s during the 2008 season), this margin only becomes more significant in states like South Carolina where over 50 percent of the democratic electorate were African American, according to 2008 numbers.
There is, however, good news for Bernie. Despite Hillary winning heavily in Latinx precincts, some exit poll data suggests that Bernie leads among Latinx voters. This is notable just because Latinx voters heavily favored Hillary back in 2008.
2. The Trump hype might be real (and that's scary)
I, like most people, was certain that Donald Trump was going to be his own downfall relatively early on in the serious political race—and that no one in their right mind would vote for him. I was wrong.
Despite losing Iowa to Ted Cruz, Trump trumped (for lack of a better word) in both New Hampshire and in South Carolina. This puts him squarely in the lead for the nomination. He, furthermore, leads in polls all around the nation. This all suggests that he isn't going anywhere.
In no way am I pretending to be objective here: Donald Trump would be a terrible president, and I have no idea why he holds a plurality of votes in the Republican race. Honestly Donald Trump is repugnant, but at this point he has a good chance to be the GOP nominee.
All I hope is for some sort of miracle that will save the Republicans from their own electorate.
3. Jeb! more like Jeb?
It's official—Jeb Bush is out of this race. You know what this means:
At the beginning of this long, drawn-out presidential season, most people thought it would culminate in another Bush vs. Clinton race. The outcome of the primary season seemed obvious, but this race has been so incredibly bizarre. Jeb Bush never flowered despite being the least scary Republican candidate. Once it was clear that Jeb(!) was floundering in the polls, the establishment failed to coalesce around him and instead just sort of waited for him to shine. His campaign never took off despite having a huge SuperPAC. It's likely now that Jeb(?) is gone, the establishment will move to Rubio who's second place finish in South Carolina (despite his blunder in New Hampshire) and will hopefully give him some form of momentum. Ideally for the Republicans, the support coalesces around Rubio to hopefully give him some edge over Ted Cruz (who everyone seems to hate).
What comes next?
On Tuesday (Feb. 23) the Republicans will hold a caucus in Nevada. FiveThirtyEight's projections forecasts another victory for Donald Trump. Then, next Saturday (Feb. 27), the Democrats hold a primary in South Carolina. This electorate heavily favors Hillary Clinton (Democrats here are less liberal and less white). March 1 is Super Tuesday, and there are 11 different races in seven different states. Bernie and Hillary will face off in Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, while the Republicans face off in Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia.
