Donald Trump has won the 2016 presidential election by obtaining 290 Electoral College votes, despite Clinton winning the popular vote, 47.7 percent to Trump’s 47.5 percent at 2:30 EST, Nov. 9.
The final national polls conducted prior to the election showed Clinton winning the popular vote by a range of 1 to 7 percent according to Pew Research findings released the day after the election, Nov. 9. However, the state-polls were said to be more variable.
Aaron Kall, Director of Debate at the University of Michigan with expertise in U.S. politics and elections from the University said, “State polls were widely inaccurate and could be a primary reasons media election predictions were wrong.”
Reasons experts believe the media polls inaccurately predicted the 2016 presidential election winner include the low voter response rate to pollsters, inaccurate assumptions by pollsters and a stigma surrounding supporting Trump leading people to lie to pollsters.
In a Pew Research survey released in 2012 the response rate for polls conducted over the telephone was 9 percent a decrease from the 1997 survey results, 36 percent.
In efforts to fill the void from a low response rate to polls, assumptions are made by pollsters to calculate likely votes said Donna Hoffman, Department Head and Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Northern Iowa whom obtained a PH.D in the field from University of Oklahoma.
A major factor for low response rate is the limited access to voters, Hoffman summarized the problem when she said, “F.C.C. restrictions cause polls conducted over the cellphone to be more expensive than via landline, additionally, since the invention of cellphones and answering machines, reaching people over the telephone has become increasingly difficult.”
Clinton will be the fifth candidate in United States history to have won the popular vote but was not elected president because of the Electoral College.
Trump secured critical state votes such as North Carolina and Florida winning him the presidency on November 8, 2016.
Fox news, CBS and ABC polls showed Clinton would win the popular vote by 4 percentage points, underestimating Trump’s support.
Fox predicted Clinton to win 48 percent to 44 percent, CBS held Clinton at 45 percent to Trumps 41 percent and NBC predicted, Clinton with 44 percent and Trump losing with 40 percent based on polls conducted by the respective media outlets between Nov. 2 and Nov 6 according to data released by the media outlets on Nov. 7.
ABC’s final Electoral College predictions showed Clinton winning states that ended up being critical in Trump securing a victory, such as, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina.
Offering further insight on why the polls did not accurately predict who the president would be, Kall said, “Trump was extremely effective securing votes from rural areas that Clinton was not,” and furthermore, those areas can be harder for pollsters to reach.
The final ABC Electoral College votes tallies showed Clinton with 321 and Trump with 216 votes.
It wasn’t just media outlets expecting Clinton to win, said 24-year-old Arizona resident and volunteer for Romney’s campaign in 2012 Mackenzie Mullins said, “I didn’t think Trump had a chance, especially because I felt like media outlets were backing up what I already believed.”
“There was a stigma this year surrounding Trump’s bid for presidency,” said Hoffman, which led to voters not being honest about supporting him, another reason media outlets weren’t able to collect accurate data.
The Pew Research center summarized a theory being talked about by many pundits, the ‘Shy Trumper’ is an explanation for voter dishonesty to pollsters, the theory is explained as supporters of Trump being fearful to make their support known, misleading data collectors in order to protect themselves from social ridicule.
Although the voter models, which use a variety of questions to determine how likely someone is to vote and for whom, used by media for the 2016 presidential election was largely inaccurate, media polls using the same models in the 2012 presidential election determined the correct outcome.
President Barack Obama protected his second term in office with a 51 percent win over, Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 47 percent.
However, media outlets did underestimate how much Obama would ultimately win by.
Fox’s polling numbers of 46 percent to 46 percent showed a tie between Romney and Obama, while CBS and NBC maintained the same numbers of 48 to 47 percent, a victory margin of 1 for Obama.
