Henry Ford’s decision to use gasoline in Nikolaus Otto’s internal combustion engine redefined both personal and commercial transportation. Further developments identified petroleum as the core material in a variety of industries including the manufacture of over 6,000 thousand household goods ranging from crayons to eyeglasses and pharmaceuticals, thus giving birth to the modern petroleum industry as well as definitively solidifying oil’s position as one of the world’s most important commodities. Furthermore, by virtue of being a commodity and being subject to the laws of supply and demand, oil has undergone a number of boom and bust cycles and has both made and broken fortunes of nations lucky enough to be in possession and those unlucky enough to be in need, and vice versa.
Thus the endeavor to acquire oil is another chapter in the struggle for land resources that has defined human interaction since pre-historic times, albeit a highly prominent chapter. And this importance cannot be overstated. Having played a pivotal role in some of today’s greatest conflicts, namely World War I and II, it has become a fuel of choice for land, sea, and air transport. Being of immense significance to both agriculture and industry, oil helped shape the American and global economy of the 20th and 21st centuries. More importantly, however, petroleum’s ascendance as the king of energy resources has redefined the delicate modern balance of power and influence.
As far as the post-World War II generations are concerned, oil allowed the United States to contain the Soviet Union during the Cold War and has been a key component of American hegemony. As strategic power projection had become synonymous with the process of securing access to oil resources, a large fraction of the United States foreign policy, and particularly Middle East policy, was directly oriented towards that goal. The importance of the Middle East was realized in the immediate aftermath of World War II as a push towards nationalization of oil resources led to the creation of a global oil cartel known as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) the participating states of which together controlled over 70 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves with two-thirds of that originating in the Middle East. OPEC went on to dominate the market and act as the main oil price-setting authority through the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries.
Today, the discovery of United States shale oil as well as the radical improvement in drilling technology, has placed the United States in the pivotal position of swing oil producer. And while OPEC still holds great sway over global prices, its, and mostly Saudi Arabia’s, recent decision to forsake that role in favor of continuous production and subsequent drop in oil prices to lowest levels since 1990 demonstrates the increasingly important role U.S. shale producers play in the global oil mix. With U.S. set to become the major petroleum exporter in the coming years, OPEC’s anxieties grow as it loses its grip on prices and as power and influence diffuse away from the Middle East (OPEC’s production core).
The United States’ potential energy independence as well as increasing emphasis on renewable sources of energy being visible on the horizon, the entirety of its Middle East policy of securing access to oil becomes subject to debate. Should we continue to support Saudi Arabia’s ultra-conservative government and its spread of radical Islamic doctrine? Should we embroil ourselves in a variety of the region’s conflicts and maintain our position as the broker of its balance of power as we expend ever greater amounts of blood and treasure towards that purpose? If the only benefit of such a strategy is an uninterrupted flow of oil then the answer is a resounding negative.
While we must yet contend with growing radicalism and the threat of global terrorism originating within the region, it is no longer a question of maintaining a presence but of tightening our own security and working with our allies on enhancing theirs. It is ultimately a question of containment and damage control.
The United States should maintain a long-advocated position of “offshore balancer” in the event that the region is headed towards full blown self-destruction with potential for global repercussions. In all other cases, despite our long history of regional involvement, calls to do more, and difficulty of extrication, a healthy distance must be maintained. As it stands now, the United States is at high risk of experiencing what is known as imperial over-reach, where commitments abroad are extended beyond the ability to maintain them, both militarily and economically. Therefore, what is needed is a rethinking of our Middle East strategy as well as a clear focus on areas of future importance - Asia Pacific.
