The 2016 presidential election was one of the biggest political upsets in American history.
Everyone, even Trump supporters, were shocked when Hillary Clinton was defeated by Donald Trump. At the time, I was floored. I still remember sitting in front of my computer watching Google's real-time election map, my jaw dropping with every new state turning red. Looking back, I'm surprised Clinton did as well as she did.
So I'm calling it right now, Trump will be reelected in 2020. Here's why:
1. Trump's surprisingly popular
Go on to Twitter, go on to Facebook, go on to Instagram, go anywhere, and search "Trump." A flood of (well deserved) vitriol and criticism will pour out. People hate Trump. That's why he has such low approval ratings right? Let's check.
Real Clear Politics, taking every poll into consideration, puts Trump's approval rating at about 44%. That's astounding. To put that into perspective, by the Summer of 1994, Bill Clinton had a mere 38% approval rating; and that's a whole point higher than Barack Obama had in the summer of 2010.
Moreover, Trump is untouchable at this point. He said it himself. Remember when he said he could shoot someone and not lose support? Remember thinking that was the end of him? The fact is, his supporters drank the Kool-Aid a long time ago and everyone in the middle has only had time to get used to him.
2. That Blue Wave may not be as big as we think
The moment Trump was elected, it was immediately assumed that, come November, Democrats were going to crush the midterm election. This "Blue Wave" was predicted like the weather. No one doubted it. But Democrats, instead of striking while the iron was hot and showing that they could oppose Trump and stand on their principles, have appeased the man at every turn and done literally nothing to actually appeal to voters. Sure, they've gone on and on about the Mueller probe and some Russia nonsense but what has it actually uncovered? Trump's not a nice man and is mean to women.
Wow. What a bombshell. Who would've thought the pussy grabber might mistreat women? Throw that on the pile of things to hate about Trump.
Now I am in no way trying to downplay what Miss Daniels went through. Trump threatened both her and her baby's life. That is unacceptable and Trump's dangerous misogyny is symptomatic of a much greater problem which affects every woman in America and which has literally killed women, as well as men.
But what has actually been done here to oppose Trump? His supporters stuck by him through all the "locker room talk", through all the sexual assault allegations, through Ivana Trump's claim that Trump raped her. This is all just an attempt to stoke some sense of liberal outrage.
And nothing will ever match conservative outrage.
There's still no reason to vote Democrat. For all their talk, Democrats have let Trump do whatever he wants. For example, appointing war criminal Gina Haspel as CIA Director. Maybe they're trying to enrage liberals even more, maybe they're just spineless, maybe they're looking forward to the day there's a Democrat in the White House and they can torture people in peace. Either way, they're so arrogantly certain they'll sweep in November that they haven't done anything to actually earn a Blue Wave.
When Republicans took the House in 2010, they earned it. They had a plan and they obstructed Obama at every turn. They didn't just talk, they acted. They got voters riled up and then they showed they could take on Obama. As of now, Democrats have only sort of gotten around to that first part.
3. Republicans can't get rid of Trump and Democrats don't know how to win
In 2016, Donald Trump should've been the easiest man in the country to soundly thrash out of politics. A little organization would've easily secured the pretty darn popular Ted Cruz the Republican nomination. Even taking into consideration his unpopularity on Capital Hill, Marco Rubio too could have won. And John Kasich even had some crossover appeal, being pretty moderate by GOP standards. Instead of uniting behind one candidate and saving themselves the embarrassment (and the loss of funds caused by Trump disturbing major Republican donors), the party fractured and had Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush competing against each other and, oh yeah, Donald Trump. They had a brief window to shut him out but, as Lindsey Graham would later bemoan, they screwed it up. Now, Trump is terminal. There's no pushing Trump Republicans to the back the way the Tea Partiers were anymore.
The Democrats, on the other hand, have the opposite problem. The Democratic nomination quickly came down to only two serious candidates: Bernie Sanders, the one who legitimately inspired the working class, minority, and younger voters, and Hillary Clinton, the one with the lifeless eyes, the bad record, and who every non-Democrat abhorred.
As we now know, the Democratic Party "rigged" the election in favor of Clinton, to use Elizabeth Warren's words. Many have speculated that Sanders would have won if he was nominated. Maybe he would have, maybe he wouldn't've. That much is unimportant. In fact, focusing on it kind of misses the point. He probably would've won and the Democrats lost a lot of needed votes with how they handled things, but they should have swept no matter what.
In 2016, Trump did not win. Clinton lost. She spent most of her time campaigning in states that were pretty much guaranteed to go blue. Her campaign simply ignored key battleground states.
Worse yet, there was no reason to vote for Clinton. Much of her campaign was anti-Trump and that was about it. Her most inspiring points were lifted from Sanders. That's why, even among white women, she failed to get the kind of support Obama had in 2008 or even in 2012.
The Clinton campaign (and, of course, the Democratic Party) was fighting for the status quo. This was a disaster, a completely avoidable, utterly idiotic disaster. The "let's keep doing what we're doing" thing barely even worked for Obama who saw a greatly diminished turnout in 2012.
And, as if to alienate and bore voters, even more, Clinton chose Tim Kaine, some unknown pro-lifer, to be her running mate. If she had any sense, if she stood for anything besides outward respectability, she would've chosen a woman, a feminist, to be her running mate and it would've been a huge deal. Her opinion about Clinton aside, it's not like Elizabeth Warren would've turned down a shot at the Vice Presidency. If she had a woman running mate, maybe did some photo ops with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, it would have actually been pretty cool and very well could've galvanized women voters. Instead, we got some moderate man.
Which, speaking of...
4. Joe Kennedy III
Let's talk about the Massachusetts Representative who's shaping up to be a major contender for the Democratic nomination in 2020, Joe Kennedy.
Joe Kennedy is the human embodiment of why Democrats are going to lose and why they deserve it. Yeah, yeah, he's a fresh-faced young Kennedy just like John and Bobby who the only kind of looks like Conan O'Brien. But guess what? He's boring!
Joseph Kennedy III is the blandest human being to ever be considered for the presidency. This saltine cracker is the kind of kid who'd run for student council president every year and, every year would lose to the same quarterback who shoves him in his locker. He had one or two decent speeches before absolutely botching his response to Trumps State of the Union address. Yet many liberals still continue to dream about this nerd ending up the president.
Worse than that, ginger boy over here is vehemently against legalizing marijuana including for medical purposes. And why is that? Because, “If you smelled [marijuana] in a car, you could search a car. When it became decriminalized, you couldn't do that." You hear that? White kid thinks it'd be a shame if police were given less of a chance to randomly search your property. In one swift motion, Kennedy has completely alienated young people and minorities.
Joseph Patrick Kennedy III, you will never be president. You don't deserve it. You're boring, you're behind the times, you're racist, and you're part of a political dynasty, something which really turned people off to Clinton. Go home.
5. Liberals have abandoned the people
Ultimately these are all parts of one main problem. The Democratic Party has defected from blue-collar America. And this is not just a problem for Democrats, liberalism as an ideology has left workers, students, and especially marginalized peoples without anything to hold onto and nothing to rally around.
What have Democrats done for working people, for minorities? They've never opposed tax cuts for the rich. The Clintons were instrumental in beginning the War on Drugs and the mass incarceration policies which have and continue to devastate black and Latinx communities. Hillary Clinton herself is a vocal warmonger. Obama never supported Black Lives Matter until it was politically impossible not to, and even then he still supported Blue Lives Matter legislature. He never fulfilled his promise to close Guantanamo Bay, hugely inflated defense spending, escalated military presence overseas, especially in Africa, and ICE under Trump is little different than it was under Obama.
And when Democrats finally faced some consequences for their actions in 2016, did they ever once turn inward and look at themselves and their platform? No. What did they do instead? They placed all the blame on workers. They claimed Trump won by appealing to the "white working class" and was helped by people "wasting their vote" on third-party candidates. Objectively, this wasn't true. It was wealthy landed whites who voted Trump into office. Workers were more likely to vote for Clinton than rich voters. But this didn't matter. It was all too easy for liberals to ignore their own out of touch ideology and retreat into classism.
As for the handful of liberals attempting to actually do anything, the #Resistance has been laughable. The Women's Marches, perhaps the largest and most well-organized protests against the Trump administration were extremely problematic. The pink pussy hats alienated trans people and, when this was brought up, white TERFS came out of the woodwork to promptly shout out trans people and allies, using transexist and racist slurs with shocking regularity both in person and online. Moreover, it cannot be overlooked that the majority of attendees were, in fact, white, well-off, and took it upon themselves to speak over people of color.
Hey look, liberals and Trump agreeing on something!
Indeed, liberalism's most repugnant offspring was the first on the scene, opposing Trumps hate with its own. This bastard child is, of course, white feminism or what I would prefer to call bourgeois feminism. In addition to being trans-exclusionary, transexist, and more often than not racist, the goal of white/bourgeois feminism is not to liberate women from sexist oppression and inequality but simply to replace the boot on our necks with a high heel. Case in point, the dogmatic support for the historically anti-feminist Hillary Clinton and even the fascist Marine Le Pen.
More recently there's been the March for Our Lives protests which, as a movement, has remained wholly unaware of its privilege. It's only as well known and respected as it is because it has white faces up front and it's completely left black kids behind. Cops and military personnel were an active part of March for Our Lives for god's sake! Liberals were fine with Obama's Shadow War and a militarized police force. Why is it that arming the citizenry, the people of color, the women, the LGBTQIA communities, and the workers, the line not to be crossed? I've said it before and I'll say it again, any movement to disarm citizens but not the police and the military is white supremacist. Liberals might know this if they didn't abandon Black Lives Matter the minute it actually challenged their privilege.
Liberals have outright refused to do anything for workers and marginalized peoples. This isn't anything new. It's certainly not Clinton or Obama's fault. Martin Luther King Jr. himself said just that in Letter from a Birmingham Jail back in 1963.
The Democrats are done. They have no appeal. They have nothing to offer workers or minorities but more sensitive oppression and exploitation. All they do and have ever done is appeal those privileged few who worry about looking respectable. And, as we've seen with Trump, most of the privileged don't care that much about respectability.
At the end of the day, there's no one working for the workers, there's no one representing the unrepresented. Until liberals stoop down to the level of us plebeians, they can expect nothing more than defeat and irrelevancy. That is why Trump will win in 2020.