Well, Donald Trump did it. He beat his 16 rivals in order to virtually become the Republican nominee for President of the United States. What started out as a running joke is almost a certainty. All that stands in his way is Hillary Clinton…and his detractors.
Since Trump began to win, many on the right began the #NeverTrump movement. They feel that Trump is not a true conservative and that he would be bad for the Republican party. Now, with Trump firmly in place to be the nominee, these folks are faced with a test of their principles. They can either give in to Trump or defect to Hillary. Is there a third option for them? Possibly.
With the rise of such unappealing candidates like Trump and Clinton, much attention has been given to third parties, specifically the Libertarian Party. Two months ago, a Monmouth University poll had Clinton at 42 percent, Trump at 32 percent, and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson at 11 percent. This is a record high for a Libertarian candidate, and could lead to a rise of Libertarianism. America has always been a center-right country and, as we move away from social conservatism, the Libertarian Party can welcome these people with open arms. And by the looks of Google, where searches of Gary Johnson surged after Ted Cruz dropped out, it is looking to be a good for the Libertarian Party.
Their good fortune, however, is Trump’s biggest problem. It looks like he can barely unite his party, let alone attract new voters. Now he has to worry about a third party candidate taking potential voters. We saw this in 1992, when Independent candidate Ross Perot took votes from both Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, helping Clinton win. We saw this again in 2000, when Green Party candidate Ralph Nader siphoning votes away from Al Gore, leading to the heavily contest election results. If Gary Johnson takes enough voters away, then Hillary will be able to easily win the election.
Hillary is a little less divisive than Trump, but she still is an alienating candidate. The campaign of Bernie Sanders had tons of steam because of the lack of appeal to the establishment coronation of Hillary. However, it looks as though she will get the Democratic nomination, thanks to the superdelegates. And luckily, as of this post, she does not have to deal with a strong third party draining votes from her.
So what is Trump to do? Well, unless the situation changes drastically, the deck is stacked against Trump. He has to deal with an unopposed Democratic candidate and a Libertarian nipping at his heels. He may not be able to do anything. On the other hand, Trump has been the underdog from the start. He has six months to turn it around. Can he do it? We will see.
