The conflict in Afghanistan between the Afghan Government, the Taliban, and other smaller factions, vying for control of territory within Afghanistan, continues. While the Afghan Government is seeking to stabilize its control over the country, the Taliban is engaging in an insurgent campaign, with the long-term goal of trying to take back control over the country.
In recent years, following the drawdown of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, the Taliban has grown its bolder in launching offensives. In 2016, the Taliban was able to expand its territorial holdings in Afghanistan to its largest extent since they were driven out of power by the United States at the beginning of the War in Afghanistan. It is estimated that the Afghanistan Government controls roughly 60% of the country, the Taliban controls 15% and the remaining 25% is either contested or controlled by smaller groups.
The Taliban has entered 2017 with a greater relative advantage. The increased territory which they were able to keep from the past year has given them a larger pool to generate money and potential recruits. They have worked to both expand their share of the production and trafficking of opium and other drugs. They have also worked to expand income a variety of sources from mining, to pistachio farming, to ‘taxing’ the roughly 3 million people in territories under their control. They have taken advantage of the Afghanistan Government’s strategic decision to abandon some rural areas, taking over these areas, and subsequently using them as bases for launching attacks on more populated areas.
The Taliban has also increased its focus on attacking the capitals of various provinces in Afghanistan. Taking control of a provincial capital would be a major step for advancing their ambitions and in weakening the Afghanistan Government. And they seem to be intent on invading at least one of them this year. Some of the provincial capitals they seem most likely to target include Lashkar Gah (Helmond Province), Kunduz (Kunduz Province), Ghazni (Ghazni Province), and Tarinkot (Uruzgon Province). In each of these provinces the Taliban have a relatively significant presence, and have made recent moves. In Helmond, the Taliban control or contest most of the province’s districts, and have positioned themselves toward laying siege to Lashkar Gah. In Kunduz, they had invaded the city twice (in September 2015 and September 2016) and have made moves to try to position themselves. In Uruzgon, they have a significant presence and had attempted to invade Tarinkot last year, before being beaten back by airstrikes. In Ghazni, they have been expanding the number of districts under their control, and recently launched attacks against government buildings within Ghazni city.
As we have entered the Spring months, the Taliban have entered once again into their ‘Spring Offensive’. There has tended to be a significant portion of Taliban fighters who spend the winter months hiding inside Pakistan, and who return to Afghanistan in the spring. As a result, the Spring and Summer months have tended to see the highest level of Taliban activity in a year.
This spring has already seen some significant Taliban activity. On March 23rd, the Taliban overran the Sangin District in Helmond Province; one of the hardest fought for areas in the country, and a key strategic point in the fight for Helmond Province. On April 21st, the Taliban attacked a military base in Afghanistan, killing over 140 Afghan soldiers, and perpetrating their deadliest single attack so far in the war. On May 20th, they launched a series of attacks on police stations in Zabul Province, killing 25 officers. Between May 20th to May 22nd, the Taliban had launched attacks in Ghazni City, destroying the Governor’s Compound, and reported that it had conquered Waghaz District, and were on the verge of conquering Din Yak District. In this past week, the Taliban launched three attacks against Afghan military bases and outposts, killing at least 58 soldiers.
These activities and the dynamics within Afghanistan indicate that the Taliban will present a challenge to the Afghanistan Government this year. How things continue to develop this year could affect the future course of the war for years to come. If the Taliban does continue to grow in territory and can begin to take over provincial centers, it could move in a direction of gradually wearing down the Afghanistan Government, and/or may potentially attract a new expansion of military intervention into Afghanistan by the U.S. and/or NATO to try to turn them back. If the Afghanistan Government can hold its own, it may at least prolong itself, and possibly try to continue its efforts to pressure the Taliban into negotiating peace. Though at the current moment, the Taliban are on the offensive and are making gains.
