Ever since Donald Trump launched his candidacy, both experts and the general public have scoffed at the idea of him having even a remote opportunity to compete for the Republican nomination, much less to win it or the Presidency. Nevertheless, here we are. Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican party. Now poll after poll seems to show Donald Trump being demolished by Hillary; the campaign finance reports show him with less money than some of the Republican candidates that already dropped out, and an almost non-existent media or grassroots effort in battleground states.
According to everyone that is not a fan of Trump, he has no shot of winning the Presidency. This sounds too familiar. Trump is not a mainstream candidate running for office by any measure and thus we should stop assessing his chances of attaining the highest office in the world utilizing conventional metrics. There are myriad reasons Trump is not a mainstream candidate and many others why we should not trust polls that have seldom seen a candidate like him:
1. Trump and the Media
Trump is famous for his inflammatory comments and unprepared speeches -- or rambles. He has been a reality star for years and has become a master manipulator. He knows exactly what to say and do to control the news cycle. If this were not enough, the media loves him. He brings unprecedented ratings in a time where mainstream media has been declining. Moreover, he is always willing to give an interview to the point that news outlets let him give interviews from the phone. This is something that we rarely see from any political figure and that shows his media mastery. The point is that he does not need to make the same expenditures in ads and airtime as other candidates; he already controls the news cycle.
2. The Social Desirability Bias
Many of the mainstream polls are phone interviews. In these interviews, the interviewer knows the person's identity as opposed to online interviews. This bias results in respondents answering questions in a manner that is considered socially acceptable by the public or the interviewer. For example, in an election pitting a White candidate against a Black or Hispanic candidate, a person might be tempted to say they will vote for the minority candidate so they are not seen as bigoted or racist.
Due to Trump's inflammatory comments, it is a very strong probability that many do not want to be associated with him by their peers. Thus they may incorrectly answer the polls and then go and vote for him in a secret ballot. This is perfectly exemplified by the fact that Trump has consistently performed better in online polling. In an average of phone polls, Hillary Clinton is leading Trump by 11 percentage points, but in an average of online polls this goes down to only four percentage points.
3. His views
Donald Trump has a mix of conservative and liberal beliefs that is unconventional of Presidential candidates of the last decades. Thus there is a very strong possibility that many Republican states will vote democratic and vice versa.
4. Supposedly anti-establishment
While the market is clearly recovering and the economy is performing much better, most Americans do not feel economically secure. They feel that the deck is stacked against them and that the rich keep getting richer. Moreover, the American institutions that were supposed to work for them are actually working for the benefit of a few elites. It is a time where the public strongly dislikes politics and conveniently Trump has perfected the art of seeming anti-establishment -- no scripted speeches and not in the pocket of big corporations.
Clinton is the epitome of the establishment in a year no one wants anything to do with the establishment. Her favorability is almost as bad as Trump's, the public does not trust her, and she has been mired in myriad scandals, whether fabricated or not.
Of course there are many other contentious points and our analysis can be deeper. Nevertheless, this is written for the casual voter and not the political junkie. I just want readers to realize that the joke is over and a Trump presidency is a possibility. Regardless of the polls, make sure to register and vote for your preferred candidate. Make an informed decision and encourage others to vote.
To register to vote: https://registertovote.org/
To find polling place and the items in your ballot: https://votinginfoproject.org/
