The Academy Awards are this Sunday, March 4, and before the stars stroll down the red carpet, I have decided to look and nine different awards categories and predict who will win each of these.
1. Cinematography.
The Nominees are:
- Roger A. Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"
- Bruno Delbonnel “Darkest Hour”
- Hoyte van Hoytema “Dunkirk”
- Rachel Morrison “Mudbound”
- Dan Laustsen “The Shape of Water”
Who will win:
Roger A. Deakins “Blade Runner 2049”
I can see no one other than the legendary Rodger Deakins receiving this award. The academy loves to award significantly important people in the film even if their work that isn’t that great (think Meryl Streep’s best actress nomination for “Florence Foster Jenkins”), but this year the award deserves to go this living legend more than anyone else. “Blade Runner 2049” is by far the most gorgeous looking film of 2017. Literally, every shot from this film is beautiful enough to frame and put above your fireplace. I can’t see this award going any other way, so congratulations Mr. Deakins on your long awaited and extraordinarily overdue first Academy Award win.
2. Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Nominees are:
- James Ivory “Call Me By Your Name”
- Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Webe “The Disaster Artist”
- Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green “Logan”
- Aaron Sorkin “Molly’s Game”
- Virgil Williams and Dee Rees “Mudbound”
Who will when:
James Ivory “Call Me By Your Name”
“Call Me By Your Name” is a shoe-in for this award as the romantic drama has been adored by critics and is often hailed as one of the best films of last year. This independent film fits perfectly into the mold of the standard Oscar-winning film. The only other nominee I can see coming close to this film is Aaron Sorkin for “Molly Game” given the high acclaim of Sorkin’s witty writing style. But, even as a second place, I see Sorkin as miles behind James Ivory’s script for “Call Me By Your Name."
3. Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Nominees are:
- Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani “The Big Sick”
- Jordan Peele “Get Out”
- Greta Gerwig “Lady Bird”
- Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor “The Shape of Water”
- Martin McDonagh “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will win:
Martin McDonagh “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Martin McDonagh winning this award for his script for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is one of the two awards that I am most confident in (the other being another nomination for this film). The script for this film is fantastically well written, and it also deal with social issues which the Academy loves. This is also the film that, if I were an Academy voter, I’d vote for as well. This film’s script is so sharp that there is not a doubt in my mind that it will be taking home the Oscar this Sunday.
4. Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees are:
- Willem Dafoe “The Florida Project”
- Woody Harrelson “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Richard Jenkins “The Shape of Water”
- Christoper Plummer “All the Money in the World”
- Sam Rockwell “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will win:
Sam Rockwell “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
The second trophy for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will see Sam Rockwell awarded for his outstanding performance as the racist police officer Dixon. Rockwell’s performance is by far the best of his career and definitely will not go unnoticed by the Academy in the second-best performance (more on that later) performance in the film.
5. Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees Are:
- Mary J Blige “Mudbound”
- Allison Janney “I, Tonya”
- Lesley Manville “Phantom Thread”
- Laurie Metcalf “Lady Bird”
- Octavia Spencer “The Shape of Water”
Who will win:
Octavia Spencer “The Shape of Water”
This award is the one I am the most unsure about. This is a year in which there isn’t one nominee who stands out among their competition. Octavia Spencer doesn’t necessarily impress in “The Shape of Water” but she feels like a safe choice for the Academy.
6. Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees are:
- Sally Hawkins “The Shape of Water”
- Frances McDormand “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
- Margot Robbie “I, Tonya”
- Saoirse Ronan “Lady Bird”
- Meryl Streep “The Post”
Who will win:
Frances McDormand “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Frances McDormand winning for her stunner of a performance in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” is the award I am most confident will happen. Frances McDormand hits a career high, which is saying something for an actor of her caliber, in the film that will win the most Oscars at the ceremony this weekend. She shocks as she takes on this layered, foul-mouthed, viciously angry character with apparent ease. She is the most deserving of this award which is all but guaranteed hers.
7. Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees are:
- Timothée Chalamet “Call Me By Your Name”
- Daniel Day-Lewis “Phantom Thread”
- Daniel Kaluuya “Get Out”
- Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”
- Denzel Washington “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Who will win:
Gary Oldman “Darkest Hour”
This award is the exact reason why average movie-goers can’t stand the Oscars. Gary Oldman is set to win this award in what is an extraordinarily Academy-friendly film. Performance of historically famous British people in historical dramas is the fastest way to earn an award (just ask Judi Dench). This an award that most people, including myself, would like to see in the hands of Daniel Kaluuya or as a farewell to Daniel Day-Lewis for his last film, but we’re going to get a decent Gary Oldman performance from a sub-par film.
8. Best Director
The Nominees are:
- Christopher Nolan “Dunkirk”
- Jordan Peele “Get Out”
- Greta Gerwig “Lady Bird”
- Paul Thomson Anderson “Phantom Thread”
- Guillermo del Toro “The Shape of Water”
Who will win:
Guillermo del Toro “The Shape of Water”
Del Toro’s beautiful direction will lead to him winning for “The Shape of Water”. This will be a well-deserved win for Del Toro, whose film will win definitely win its fair share of awards of this year. This film is his best since his 2006 Spanish-language film “Pan’s Labyrinth”.
9. Best Picture
The Nominees are:
- “Call Me By Your Name”
- “Darkest Hour”
- “Dunkirk”
- “Get Out”
- “Lady Bird”
- “Phantom Thread”
- “The Post”
- “The Shape of Water”
- “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will win:
“The Shape of Water”
This year’s best picture race is the least like normal Academy film (except for “Darkest Hour”), which makes this award so hard to predict. “The Shape of Water” just edges out its competition, but not quite to guarantee the win. The only other film that I can reasonably say may win the biggest award of the night is “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”. “The Shape of Water” ever so slightly rises on top because of this gripping, beautiful, romance film crafted by Guillermo Del Toro checks every box on what the best picture winner should be.
