It is now November 2017. We’re one year removed from the last presidential election, yet for those following politics daily, it feels like yesterday. Every single day, it seems as if President Trump is somehow tied into the headlines, usually with a tweet that gets a lot of attention. This has not fared well for Trump, with average approval ratings dipping into the high 30 percent range, seems to be on the “wrong” side of almost every issue. One must ask if it is too early to look at the 2020 election to find a replacement on either side of the aisle. The short answer is: yes. The long answer is: no.

There are still three years until the next presidential election, and Americans are worn out from the 2016 cycle. This was an election where we arguably saw more mudslinging than any other contest. This started in the primaries, especially on the Republican side, where candidates didn’t hold back from harsh personal attacks. Some would say that all of this arguing has turned Americans off from politics, but in reality, more Americans are paying attention to our government than at any point in recent history. Walking down Court St. in Athens, on any given day, you will hear conversations about current events and, more specifically, Donald Trump. With the amount of conversation going on combined with poor approval ratings, there is a perfect storm brewing that makes it the perfect time to talk about 2020.

Obviously, we cannot be for sure that the Trump presidency will continue its downward spiral, as there is the chance of a momentum increase due to the new tax plan that has been proposed, but if this administration stays the course, it will be doomed. The best tell-tale sign for Trump’s political fate will probably be the midterm elections in 2018. The first of two metrics that will be used to predict a Trump re-election is how blue the Senate turns. At this point, it is almost a sure thing that the Senate will return to the Democrats’ control next November, but the real question is how big of an advantage they will hold. If this number is more than 55 Democrats, Trump should be worried about his chances. The second metric is if the Democrats can win back the House of Representatives. Now, this looks like less of a longshot than it did at the beginning of the summer when Trump’s approval numbers started to fall. If the House turns over to the Democrats next year, the president will have a very tough path going into the beginning of the 2020 campaign season.

Now that it has been determined that it is not too early to look at the 2020 election, next week, I will discuss possible candidates for both parties. Normally, only the challenging party would be looked at this early into a first term president, but considering the special circumstances of the Trump presidency, both sides will be looked at for challengers.