IRCTC Ticket Confirmation Probability: How it works?

IRCTC Ticket Confirmation Probability: How it works?

Many of us wonder about how does IRCTC shows the percentage value of any PNR confirmation probability. Here's the answer.


We all prefer Indian Railways as our first choice to travel from one location to another. Earlier, traveling in the train was allowed with a wait list ticket, but there was no berth allotted to the passenger. Every train traveler must have gone with the pain of traveling with a wait list ticket. With the amendment of IRCTC rules at intervals, and the continuous effort by Indian Railways to make train journey smoother for passengers, it was decided that Wait list ticket holders will not be allowed to board the train on the scheduled date of journey. The portal allows a traveler to book tickets under waiting list (WL) but doesn't confirm any berth allotment. Passenger has to wait till the journey date and regularly check their PNR status for a push in the waitlist number. Now, passengers whose tickets have moved to RAC status can board the train as side lower berth is allotted to two passengers on a sharing basis. A true train traveler displays his interest in journeying via trains. Their activities like enjoying the wait for train, the joy of peeping outside the window to gaze the natural beauty, having good food in train and downloading of railway apps for feasibility, are the signals that you love train journey.

Ticket Confirmation Probability: A Technical Initiative by IRCTC
Today, IRCTC is not the same as it was in the past. Things have gone technical and major facilities for the passengers which were operated offline, have been launched online. The redesigned website is responsive and easy to navigate for using its features. Gone are the days we were dependent on railway counters to inquire about trains and other facilities. IRCTC, through its technical feasibility and innovative measures has introduced a new feature of "CONFIRMATION PROBABILITY" highlighted as "CNF PROBABILITY" through which any passenger having a wait list ticket can check the probability of his ticket confirmation. After logging into the IRCTC portal there's a section called "CNF Probability". As soon as the passenger checks his probability, it shows value in percentage form with three primary colors (Yellow, Red and Green). For those whose results are less than 50% (RED color) have unlikely very less chance or no chance of confirmation. Likewise, the scores falling under 50% to 65% (Yellow color) imply less surety, and above 65% imply a confirm ticket or berth allotment. By these scores it is easy for the passengers to decide whether to continue his journey for the day for cancel his ticket and postpone his journey.

The Concept behind Confirmation Probability Percentages
It's all about making informed decisions with prediction. Every innovation has a concept hidden behind, and same is with the Confirmation probability function. Let's discuss some of the factors on which the accuracy of the result depends on.

The Waiting Numbers: Any wait list ticket will have waiting numbers like WL X/WL Z. In this code, the "X" is called the "Initial Waiting Number" and "Z" is wait list status after booking and printing of ticket. The initial waiting number is the unique number while the other WL status keeps on changing. It can be same for the other passengers too. The difference between the X and Y is the actual number of tickets cancelled for the journey. Hence, the confirmation probability can be calculated or determined by the clearance of "Initial Waiting Number".

No. of days left for Journey: It's the number of days left before the date of journey. The waiting list can take any twists and turns. There are three chances; the ticket can get confirmed, or the status cannot change, or the WL may move to RAC. The reservation for a particular date starts from 120 days prior to the date of journey. You have enough time so needn't worry! Confirmation chances are higher.

How it works?
This is just like what a human does. Humans prediction towards any matter depends on the past data, experience and applying all those learning in the present scenario. Further calculations result in a certain value through which decisions are made. The seat confirmation probability works in the same way. There're three main concepts working behind the same.

  • Current Trends in Train: This refers to the rate of current bookings and cancellations of tickets in a particular train. These values are a part of calculating the confirmation probability. If the cancellation is not frequent, the probability will be low and vice-versa.
  • Historical or Past Data: Numerical data of the past bookings and cancellations are also a crucial factor. This trend will help to determine the perfect percentage value which every traveler wants to be flashed on screen while booking tickets.
  • Machine Learning Algorithm: Any database and its processing need some language or an algorithm to deliver an accurate result. Machine learning algorithm is the base through which the data is processed and results are derived for the passengers using IRCTC website to know their ticket's confirmation probability.

IRCTC says "it analyses current and past trends to predict the probability of confirmation, which may differ from actual status. The information may not always be accurate, but the information itself could prove to be helpful in deciding whether to go ahead with the journey, based on confirmation probability".

Is the Confirmation Percentage value accurate?

The values may not be accurate. Since there are many factors working behind the confirmation probability, it gives a close and convenient value in percentage form. This value will help the passengers to decide whether to carry forward with the journey or cancel and postpone the journey to some another date.

IRCTC's revamped ticketing portal has many new features for the passengers who had made planning a train journey simple and smooth. It's the India's first website to implement the Artificial Intelligence known as "ASK DISHA" which answers all the queries and concerns of train travelers. Indian Railways is turning its setup into a modern and tech-driven mode for the passengers. So, if your next journey ticket is booked with a wait list status, and the questions like "Will my waitlist ticket be confirmed?" "Shall I Postpone my journey?" haunts you like a nightmare; it's the time to log in to IRCTC portal to check your PNR status with the confirmation probability. Make your decisions easy.

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