“Your courage will help you overcome many obstacles.” “When Jupiter is in alignment on the 26th, you will run into someone who cares deeply for you.” “Vulnerability is a gift for those who trust.” This kind of instruction is commonly found inside a fortune cookie or in the back of a celebrity magazine, and cause the majority of the population to crack a smile and roll their eyes. While these aphorisms are fun, they’re too ridiculous to be taken seriously- a cookie or a star sign could never influence our lives.
Writers of fortune cookies and horoscopes utilize the Barnum effect, named after circus ringleader and showman P.T. Barnum, marketer of multiple hoaxes. The Barnum effect (also known as the Forer effect) asserts that people will take a generic description and rate it as true for themselves, not knowing that it could be "true" for virtually anyone. A professor named Bertram Forer tried this on his psychology class in 1948, individually administering a personality test and asking students to rate its accuracy. One example given is “at times you are extroverted, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved.” The students adduced the tests as very accurate, and were shocked to learn that their classmates received the exact same result! When false phrases are worded gently or hidden within positive characteristics, people are more likely to be fooled. Barnum descriptions seem correct because people want to believe true statements about themselves.
The Barnum effect harmless when only mass-produced food products and glossy tabloids are in play, spouting out unspecific wisdom. However, there is a dark side to naïveté. Psychics often offer vague counsel as they read body language and subtly fish for information. This is known as cold reading. Customers who come in looking for answers are swindled as these "seers" mention briefly about a lost connection, only to have the patron confirm that a family member died recently. When the person leaves, he or she will remember that the psychic knew about the relative’s death, not that the psychic merely prodded for material. In this way, the client reveals what the psychic needs to maintain the appearance of "insight."
The best way to avoid falling prey to the Barnum effect is to utilize critical thinking. A result like “You pride yourself as an independent thinker” seems nothing but complimentary, but also implies that the reader ignores the opinions of others. The more specific an opinion is, the less people tend to agree with it. If a statement applies in almost every circumstance, or if it cannot be proved false, it is probably too good to be true. The next time you open up a fortune cookie and find you are destined for fame, fortune, and fidelity, take it as a compliment, but think twice.
