The Democratic Primary is going to be really boring. Bernie Sanders has enraptured large crowds and energized a vocal minority of the party with his message of unabashed populist progressivism. However, he has so far been unable to expand his base of support to include the women, people of color, and moderate Democrats who made up Barack Obama’s “Dream Coalition” in 2008 and 2012.
Most likely, Sanders will win the primary in Vermont and perhaps even in New Hampshire, too, capturing around 20 percent of the vote nationwide. Hillary Clinton, having maintained her inimitable lead in money, endorsements and supporters, will win the nomination by the biggest margin for a non-incumbent in modern history.
That predictable scenario is terrible for journalists, political pundits, and anyone who has to write a weekly column about the presidential election. It should surprise no one, then, that in recent weeks professional politicos have been hyping the possibility of Vice President Joe Biden announcing a run for president. If he does decide to enter race, he will likely find that he’s made a terrible mistake.
The most important question every candidate must answer is: Why are you running for president? In 2008, Obama told Democrats they needed a leader with the wisdom to avoid costly military entanglements like the Iraq War and the vision to transcend partisan politics. This election, Bernie Sanders has the persuasive answer that no other candidate will be as tough on Wall Street, crony capitalism, and the “billionaire class.”
Establishment politicians who have spent years at the heights of American politics, like Clinton and Biden, often have a harder time answering the “why” question. Clinton, at least, can point to the chance to elect the first female president. Biden, however, does not have any obvious rationale for why voters should choose him over Clinton or Sanders. He does not represent women, young people, Hispanics, or any other rising demographic, nor is he likely to offer a drastically different policy vision than Clinton.
Moreover, Biden has seriously liabilities that would enable Clinton and Sanders to portray him as unelectable. As vice president, Biden’s garrulous nature has made him America’s lovable uncle, even if it has caused occasional headaches for the Obama administration. As a candidate, Biden’s tendency to go off script (for instance, he once told a crowd that Hillary Clinton might have been a better choice for vice president) would leave him open to attack.
Sanders’ supporters would see him as another establishment moderate, tainted by his association to what they perceive as Obama’s half-hearted liberalism. Given Biden’s opposition to the President’s first term surge in Afghanistan and the raid that killed Osama Bin Laden, Clinton could easily portray him as overly cautious and unprepared to protect America in an increasingly dangerous world.
Those who support a Biden candidacy point to Hillary Clinton’s falling favorability ratings as evidence voters are hungry for an alternative to the current frontrunner. But in fact, Clinton’s favorability among registered Democrats — who will decide the party’s nominee — has been high and stable.
It is conceivable that Clinton’s numbers might fall if the vice president were to mount a strong campaign, or if the controversy over the former secretary of state’s email became much more severe. However, this late in the summer it would be difficult to build the necessary infrastructure or raise the cash to compete in the early states. Any Biden candidacy would likely be short and futile.
Which is a shame, because the vice president is by all accounts a good person, liked and admired by the journalists who cover him and the lawmakers he works with. Americans of all political stripes, even those who disagree with him, can find themselves moved by the life story of a man who has suffered more loss than any man should. The final act of Biden’s career should not be a grasping and quixotic attempt to achieve what eluded him in his two other presidential campaigns. He deserves to be remembered better than that.
