Regardless what side of the isle you sit on president-elect Donald Trumps victory was a shock to the nation. Many Republican’s, including Trump himself, have been saying for months that the system is rigged, the polls included. While it can be argued that the media and establishment politics have tried to make it as difficult as possible for him to succeed, it’s time to debunk this myth that the polls are rigged.
Our less educated friends will point to Trumps victory as proof of poll manipulation. However, this could not be further from the truth. Polling has never been an exact science.In each polls methodology the pollsters try to recreate the typical voting block through random sampling, meaning a fair assortment of both Republicans, Democrats, and independents are randomly selected. The data is then weighted by a number of demographics. The purpose of this is to try and reflect the U.S. population based on census data.
The problem is that is impossible to know who will show up to the polls on election day. As both campaigns were aware, it all comes down to voter turnout. Thus, the polls weren’t rigged, the pollsters misjudged what voter turnout would be this election cycle. It’s simple, Clinton wasn’t able to motivate her core to the polls.
According to exit poll data Trump among white voters had a positive 1 point marginal difference compared to how Romney performed in 2012, preferring Trump over Clinton by 21 points. Turnout amongst black voters preferring Hillary dropped 7 points compared to when Obama captured 87 percent of the vote four years ago. Even amongst the hispanic voting block Hillary was down 8 points.
Were there closet Trump voters? The short answer is yes, but did they represent such a large group that it caused several swing states to turn red? Personally, I don’t think this minute group made the difference. Like I argued above, this election was always about voter turnout.
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin noted that many of the polls did not sample enough white Americans lacking a college education. This was a group that Trump attracted. He also claimed that pollsters put to much value on the diversity factor. Stating, “There was too great a belief that demographics are destiny, and that demographics would lead to a certain outcome”. “The reality turned out to be much different that.”
Disclosure: I voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election and am a register Republican in the state of Florida.
