Conventional wisdom is that the election gets serious after Labor Day. This is a deeply silly election (remember when Rubio and Trump talked about penis size and Trump floated the idea that maybe Ted Cruz’s father killed JFK) and "The Apprentice" host is one of the candidates so there is little possibility that will happen. But people will start paying closer attention as the debates are coming up and the election is just over two months away. Here's what to look out for as the election enters the final stretch.
1. Trump Pivoting or Doubling Down?
After having secured the primary, everyone in politics was waiting for a pivot. Would he shift his stance on immigration, deportation, The Wall? Maybe his tone? So far it looks like no. Yes, he speaks off a script and TelePrompTer from time to time. And hey, it's been awhile since he's gotten into a feud with a judge or parents of a soldier killed in combat. But he stills yells about The Wall, that, believe him, Mexico will pay for, even though they don't know it yet, the dangers posed by immigrants, about Crooked Hillary and the dishonest media, Chuck Todd AKA "Sleepy-eyes" "crazy" and "very dumb" Mika Brezinski along with with some, uh, interesting overtures to Black and Hispanic people. So no calm, levelheaded, friendlier Trump marking a pivot to the general yet. There is still time, but I wouldn't hold your breath as the notoriously bullheaded, 70 year-old (fake) Billionaire isn't known for shrewd maneuvering and tact or a willingness to change.
2. Polls Tightening?
Before the convention, Trump and Clinton were neck and neck. After the RNC, Trump was leading slightly, with Clinton taking the lead with an assist from a larger post-convention bounce after the DNC convention. Now, Clinton is up a steady but not overwhelming Real Clear Politics average of 4 points. Will Trump's Mexico visit give him a boost? Will Clinton’s ongoing email scandal impact her poll numbers? Will WikiLeaks releasethe Clinton foundation emails they claim to posses shortly before the election. The prospect of a new Clinton scandal stemming from emails could bring large fluctuations in the race, so if you're a Clinton supporter, you better hope Julian Assange is bluffing.
3. Will Republican leaders continue to support Trump?
Mostly all Republican Party leaders, with the notable exceptions of Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney along with lesser known figures such asBen Sasse, Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins and Mike Lee, support Trump. But if Trump is down in the polls and vulnerable candidates sense their support of Trump may hurt the party in the senate congressional races his fall, perhaps we’ll see a few #neverMindNeverTrump Republicans emerge. Senator Mark Kirk, in a tough race in Illinois, has already refused to support Trump. Will not a war hero because he was captured John McCain, "liddle" Marco Rubio and chronically concerned House Speaker Paul Ryan follow?
4. Campaign Messaging
Clinton and Trump are not normal nominees when it comes to policy, especially when it comes to how they are perceived as compared to stereotypes about members of their respective parties. By this I mean that trying to portray Clinton as a left wing, anti-war Bolshevik will not stick. Nor will portraying touch as an elitist rich snob who only cares about lowering taxes, nation building abroad and free trade at the expense of the middle class. Trump has already tried to define Clinton primarily as the candidate of the corrupt establishment rather than a leftist who will raise your taxes and hault economic growth, while Clinton has portrayed Trump as outside the Republican mainstream, rather than out-of-touch rich guy, almost begging Republicans skeptical of Trump to stay home in November. How the candidate and their campaigns chose their attacks will be quite different than in previous years, making messaging something to pay close attention to.
5. Debates
Clinton-Trump debates will certainly be something worth watching. But will they happen? Trump has already complained about the first debate timing, which is scheduled on the same night as an NFL game. Trump also skipped a debate in the primary before the Iowa caucuses so I wouldn't put it passed him to claim that the system is rigged, the debate time is unfair and Crooked Hillary wouldn't compromise. I won't debate. Sad! But ultimately, if he is still down in the polls nationally by the debate, I doubt he'd back out.
6. Trump's Demographic Problems
Trump is behind, and behind big league among Black and Hispanic voters. This has hurt him in swing-states like Florida and Ohio with many nonwhite voters. This is unlikely to change as "What the hell do you have to lose?" is likely not going to sell. In addition, the traditionally deep red Georgia and close too. Why? Partly, white, college-educated women not backing Trump at the rate that they normally support the Republican nominee. Trump struggles among this demographic most likely due to time temperament and a history of misogyny which makes it hard to gain supporters in key places like the Atlanta and Philadelphia suburbs, both in swing states. If he can appeal to these parts of the Republican coalition, and how he will try to appeal to these voters if he does at all, will be interesting to watch.
7. Other candidates
You probably have heard about the nominees from the two major parties, Trump and Clinton. Don't like either of them? You're not alone! This year Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and Evan McMullin provide other options at the ballot box. There is simply no excuse to stay home this year. There is a candidate for everybody!
Libertarians and people who think Trump’s plans for ethnic cleansing are bad because they're expensive have Gary Johnson! Believe Clinton is in sufficiently left wing? Hate GMOs have "real questions" about vaccines and but absolutely love Harambe memes? Jill Stein is the candidate for you!
Anti-Trump conservatives and professional Republicans who thinks Donald Trump is a big government, liberal? Wish the GOP nominated zombie Ronald Reagan with Mitch Daniels as his running mate, Evan McMullin is the guy for you!
Jokes and snark aside, it will be interesting to see whether Clinton or Trump either criticize, run attack ads against the 3rd, 4th and 5th party candidates or attempt to court their supporters. I suspect as the race gets closer more Johnson and Stein voters, will gravitate to the presidential candidates from the two major parties, while the few McMullin voters will stay true to their candidate in places like Utah, where he is strong, relatively speaking, among Mormon voters, and Northern Virginia, where he will have the support of some professional Republicans in the DC suburbs.
