Floridians know their weather. It’s hot, humid, rainy, and just plain uncomfortable. But a few weeks of beautiful winter weather make the summer struggle worth it. A humid subtropical peninsula sticking out into warm waters full of potential energy, weather experts – year after year – repeat the likelihood of Florida being hit with a huge hurricane.

“We are overdue. We are unprepared. Don’t become apathetic!”

It has been over a decade since a round of four hurricanes impacted the state in 2004 – Charley, Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne. The estimated damage impact of that season was 57.37 billion dollars. Infamous hurricane Andrew in 1992 produced damages estimated at 25 billion dollars at the time, or over 42.8 billion today if accounted for inflation.

But Florida’s population has nearly doubled since Andrew. In 1992, 13.65 million people resided in Florida. The current population is over 20 million.

To be blunt, Florida is at the doorstep of an utter catastrophe. We are at the intersection of several factors which will cause this. Simply put, there are four reasons contributing to the danger. They are the massive expansion of housing and supporting infrastructure, overcapacity of existing infrastructure, strain on the ecosystem, and destruction of natural lands.

As the population grows, it puts a strain on resources and causes environmental damage. Housing needs to be built for people to live, and therefore cities expand into suburbs. Florida’s most impressive boom years occurred post World War II, at the same time the family automobile and federal interstates were becoming a staple of American lifestyle. Therefore, Florida cities are very broad with suburbs stretching for dozens of miles outside of city centers. People drive a lot of in Florida, and a lot of drivers are older, but that’s a topic for a different day.

In order to sustain population growth, infrastructure must expand as well. Stores, entertainment, and venues are built to support the population, all placing stress on the environment. Natural swampland is drained and filled-in to erect single-family houses. Forests are slashed to build stores and provide lumber. It should be obvious that an acre of roadway or parking lot is hotter and less valuable to an ecosystem than an acre of natural land.

Florida is as very low-lying and flat peninsula, which unfortunately is assembled from porous limerock and sand, remnants of prehistoric coral. It means the land is extremely susceptible to flooding. Metropolitan areas, most of which are conveniently located right on the edge of the water (historic ports and forts), are quite literally inches above sea level. According to the US Census, 97.3% of Florida’s population lives near the coast. Only six counties (of 67) in the state are considered inland. The highest point in Florida, Britton Hill, located in the Florida Panhandle, is 345 feet above sea level. Orlando, the largest inland metro in Florida, is 82 feet above sea level. Tampa is at 48 feet, and Miami is less than 6 feet.

When a hurricane approaches land, the pressure of the system and wind push seawater towards land. This is called a storm surge. The height of the surge has many factors. Typically forecasters estimate a 12-15 foot storm surge for hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina (cat 3) produced a devastating 28 foot storm surge when it impacted Mississippi and Louisiana. Charley (cat 4) produced an 8 foot surge. Perform a search for storm surge maps of a city of your choice and you will be astonished.

With the combination of low elevations of Florida cities, the development of natural seaside land, and the potential for storm surge, flooding is by far the largest cause of damage during extreme weather events.

Even normal rain has been causing havoc in urban areas. In June 2016, St. Petersburg dumped 3.3 million gallons of partially treated sewage into Tampa Bay because the wastewater system could not handle a few days’ worth of rain. In August 2015, major roads in downtown Tampa were completely flooded for days because of a stalled weather front. As more housing and roads are built and wetlands destroyed, the issue will worsen. Keep in mind, these are normal storms causing havoc, not hurricanes.

Florida coasts naturally consist of hundreds of square miles of wetlands. These areas are a buffer for changing sea levels and the ecosystem of these areas is well adapted to handle hurricanes. But swamps cannot support high rise condos, hotels and oceanside mansions. Therefore it should be no surprise that when these buildings are constructed feet from the water, they will be flooded during any storm. Yet reports from the biggest media corporations flock to Florida during a storm, stand on the beach, and broadcast wind, rain and waves as if it were some unusual event.

The threat from a hurricane is real. They are massive, powerful storms that must be respected. But to blame the devastation on a natural event is unfitting. The true reason for the damage is the uncontrolled greedy development in this natural state, once considered America’s last frontier. The failure of sustainable policies, massive development, destruction of environment, and apathy to the force of hurricanes will – sooner or later – produce a massive catastrophe here. The strength of nature cannot be tamed. The environment cannot be restored overnight. The economic incentives will not disappear. For now, Floridians can only wait.