The film industry is no stranger to box office bombs here and there. Every now and then a certain film will be bad or will just look so bad from the trailer that it doesn't generate much hype for the film that it causes the studio to lose money. However, I've noticed an unnerving increase in frequency of these box office bombs and disappointments over the past few years. This frequency became extremely noticeable last year when I noticed more films (especially during the summer) bombing or becoming financial disappointments and with the most recent box office bomb "King Arthur: Legend of the Sword" being fresh in my mind I thought it would be an appropriate time to go over my personal theories as to why all these films have been bombing recently.
This, like every other "hot take" article on this particular subject, came into my head after reading The Hollywood Reporter article where Steven Spielberg predicted that a Hollywood crash, similar to the one that happened in the 50s and 60s, would happen again after, "half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office." When one looks at Hollywood during the 50s and Hollywood now similarities begin to show. During the 50s, the omnipresence of movie theaters was being financially threatened by this fancy new piece of consumer technology known as television. Today, movies theaters are threatened by the rapidly emerging online streaming services, such as Netflix and Hulu. In the 50s, Hollywood tried to combat television by offering gimmicks that only theaters could provide like widescreen projection, "smell-o-vision," and 3-D. Today, theaters are doing the same thing by offering 4DX motion theaters, Imax screens, and um... 3-D (if you haven't noticed this one has made a bit of a comeback in recent years).
The Hollywood of the 50s and early 60s relied on big budget epics like "Ben-Hur" and "The Ten Commandments" to give the audience a massive experience that they couldn't get on their small television screens. Similarly, modern Hollywood makes most of its money from large budget films, most of which are based on a nostalgic property, such as "Star Wars," "Deadpool," "Jurassic Park," "Spider-Man," "Ghostbusters," "The Avengers" and "Star Trek."
However, this led to more films with wildly inflated budgets and flooded the release schedules with so many expensive films that it led to increased competition and smaller box office returns. This led to an increase in box office bombs, such as the infamous 1963 film "Cleopatra," which led to the bankruptcy of several movie studios and ended the business model known as the "Studio system." Looking at Hollywood then and now, I think that Hollywood's problems today are a mirror of what they were going through in the 50s and 60s.
Similar to that time, I've noticed more big budget films (costing between 150-250 million) have been released over the past few years. Last year, 2016, was when I started to notice this problem after seeing so many reports and articles of several films bombing; one after the other. I watched films such as "The BFG," "Kubo and the Two Strings," "Ghostbusters (2016)," "Gods of Egypt", "Alice Through the Looking Glass," and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows" bomb at the box office. Several of these were based on nostalgic properties, which are supposed to be safe bets and guarantee a built-in audience.
However, many of them underestimated the size of that audience. Something like "The BFG" has fans that love the book that it's based on, however that audience is a niche one at best and does not have the same mainstream appeal that something like Batman or Spider-Man would. Another contributing factor could have been that some of them aren't good films. "Gods of Egypt," "Alice Through the Looking Glass," and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows" all have rotten scores on review sites like Rotten Tomatoes. However, many bad films make money all the time, just look at the "Transformers" films. It could be bad marketing, which most likely led to "Ghostbusters (2016)" bombing. It could be the lack of marketing for some films, which sealed the fate of the excellent "Kubo and the Two Strings." However, I feel that the biggest contributor to these recent failures has to due with the out of control budgets many of them are sporting.
This past year the film "Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice" was released and despite negative reviews, the film grossed over 800 million dollars worldwide. However, many considered the film a "disappointment" despite the high gross. This is because the film cost a rumored 400 million to make and needed to make 800 million just to break even and make over a billion to not be considered disappointing. This is the heart of the problem. Over-spending on a film is never a good idea and overspending on a film during a crowded release schedule full of big budget films trying to compete is a really bad idea.
Hollywood needs to learn self-control and put out more mid-range budgeted films (between 100-150 million) so they don't need to make that much money just to break even. A film usually has to make about twice its budget (to cover marketing costs) just to break even. Filmmakers need to learn to do more with what little they have and if you think that holds a movie back just look at films like "Logan," "Deadpool," and "John Wick."
These are all great films who's budgets were all under 100 million dollars. Hollywood needs to spread out its big budgets films more and make fewer of them to avoid over-saturating the market and allowing them enough free space to make enough money. A combination of everything I have stated in this article has lead Hollywood toward an unforeseeable future. I hope someone (by the slimmest of chances) in Hollywood reads this and can learn from it, lest we have a similar crash to the one that was seen in the 60s. On the other hand, that desperation might force Hollywood to take more chances on original ideas and concepts for films like it did in the 70s. Whatever happens, I hope we are capable of actually learning from it for a change.
