NATO and Russia are stalemating as a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and an all-out war loom on the horizon.
Ukraine is the battleground for strategy and influence between NATO and Russian forces. The war could be averted depending on whether the ongoing talks between both sides produce any breakthrough. It’s clear that the stage is already set for war, and all the elements are present. What it takes is a miscalculated shot, reminiscent of World War One.But why is there all this madness? Russia sees the vast expansion of NATO as a threat to its security. So it has made demands in some form of an undeclared ultimatum, which includes the removal of missiles from eastern-block countries and Ukraine out of NATO, something that the West has flatly rejected.
In reprisal Russia mobilized some 100 thousand troops and heavy armaments around the borders of Ukraine, not only as a show of force or intimidation but to invade, the West claims. Then, NATO responded by sending their best-equipped troops, navy and air force to Ukraine and allied countries in the area.
In retrospect, one must understand that this debacle dated back to the late 80s when the Soviet republics broke away from the Union. What happened is that the political future of those republics was left in limbo. No real treaty was signed regarding their fate other than a verbal agreement stipulating that NATO will never expand its membership to the former Eastern-block countries.
NATO didn’t live up to its promise. Former Russian Pres. Mikhail Gorbach’s mistake back then is today Putin’s living nightmare. Now Putin has no choice but to make difficult decisions against the threats facing his country. Today most of those former Soviet republics are westernized or actual NATO members. Now feeling cornered and threatened, Putin has no other option but to risk it all by playing Russian roulette with military intimidation or the invasion of Ukraine.
But what would happen if Russia invades Ukraine? The worst repercussion of the invasion of Ukraine is the domino effect that would come with it. A Ukrainian conflict would drag entire Europe into military combat; sooner or later, other players would join in the action, which would turn it into a global war.
Also, The West would retaliate by imposing heavy economic sanctions on Russia. With a GDP of 1.48 trillion USD in 2020, Russia would have to resort to the use of an alternative means of survival, or it would probably collapse under the weight of pressure.
Regardless of Russia’s dependence on gas revenue, it may retaliate by stopping the supply of natural gas to Ukraine, Germany and other European countries. In that case, how those countries would cope without that essential commodity is everyone’s guess. Unless those countries can find an alternative means of gas supply, they would probably have to play politics to keep the gas pipeline running.
Russia is like a hungry mad dog trapped in the corner. Trying to put it in a box only exacerbates the situation. Frankly, the West is too provocative and intransigent toward Russia. As a reminder, the Cuban missile crisis back in 1963 almost triggered a military confrontation between the United States and Russia. How much more so it is today with the West encircling Russia with nuclear and all sorts of lethal weapons? How would the United States along with the rest of NATO countries feel if Putin reciprocated by placing the same type of weapons in its backyard, meaning in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela? Also, western governments and their media, with their use of propaganda, have stigmatized Russia as an enemy and Putin as a villain. Rather, the opposite is true. You be the judge.
At this point, the West has crossed the “Red Line.” Putin has got enough. Now Ukraine? No way! The ultimate Russian demand, according to Putin, has to be a signed guarantee that missiles placed in Russia’s backyard are removed and that Ukraine stays out of NATO. Otherwise, the actual ticking bomb will finally go off.
