This Thursday is Groundhog Day, the most important and monumental holiday in American history. It's the day that Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania's most famous groundhog, emerges from his hole and predicts whether we will have an early spring or six more weeks of winter.
Punxsutawney Phil's contribution to society is unmatched in the modern era.
The 130 year old groundhog (yes, it's been the same groundhog since the inception of the holiday) has made 129 predictions in his life, providing the correct prediction a whopping 39%. That's almost near perfect. So, we can't overlook Punxsutawney Phil's hypothesis.
What are the odds that Phil sees his shadow this year?
Remember, if Punxsutawney comes out of his hole and sees his shadow, that means that there will be six more weeks of winter. If he sees no shadow, then we will be blessed with an early spring. In his 129 predictions, Phil has seen his shadow a total of 102 times. He's only predicted an early spring 18 times. There are a few years of no record. This is no joke, in 1942, the record says that "war clouds blacked out part of his shadow." World War II literally prohibited Punxsutawney Phil from seeing his shadow.
So the odds of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow are pretty high, unless we are plunged into World War III in the next 4 days. You never know. But, there are a few factors that could sway his decision.
First off, the weather is calling for a high of 26 with snow showers. That could really cloud up the sky and of course without sun, Phil will not have a shadow. But, there's some other human factors to consider. What if one of the light guys messes up and shines a light too brightly on Phil. Poor ole Phil will get really hot and refuse to come out of his hole and tell the world his prediction.Or, you know, the light could cause Phil to cast a shadow. The first is much more likely. Also, what if Phil eats too much the night before. We can't force Phil to come out if he's got indigestion. Also, Phil has to come out at exactly the right time. If he exits even a second too early or too late, the data will be corrupt and we can't use it.
With all this evidence, it took a lot of time to consider my own prediction of what Punxsutawney Phil's prediction will be. But after much deliberation with my team of Groundhog Day experts and a long look up at the sky, I have made my Prediction:
Punxsutawney Phil will not see his shadow. We will have an Early Spring!
The world will be watching on February 2. Make us proud Phil.
