When news first surfaced that Speaker of the House Paul Ryan would not seek reelection to his seat in the 1^st Wisconsin Congressional District, I was surprised, but on second thought probably shouldn’t have been.

After all, politics has been a bizarro realm since 2015 (when, not so coincidentally, Ryan first took up the speakership). Why would things look any different in 2018?

However, the news hit particularly close to home on my part because I actually live in Paul Ryan’s Congressional district. For my entire life, the man has represented my family and me in Congress and there was definitely a certain level of civic pride in October of 2015 when the news broke that he would be elected speaker.

After all, no one from Wisconsin had ever held the job before.

But now, three years later, Ryan is set to step away and while he has not stated explicitly why, there is no denying that this is an unfriendly environment, even in a district that Ryan has won comfortably, usually by double digits, for the past 20 years.

While political pundits were quick to assert Ryan’s stepping down as a sign that President Trump had won his battle, real or imaginary, with the Speaker, I think the situation is much more nuanced than that. As Vox’s Matthew Yglesias pointed out in a new article this morning, President Trump has adopted many more of Ryan’s ideas than Ryan ever took on of Trump’s.

The American Health Care Act (which ultimately failed to pass and replace Obamacare) had the full support of the Trump administration, only to be bogged down by unease in the Senate. Likewise, the most recent round of tax cuts that passed this past December was the brainchild of Speaker Ryan and supported adamantly by the President.

However, that does not mean that Ryan’s deferment to run this election cycle is not a defeat for the Republican Party. With Ryan’s announcement, there are now 55 Representatives from the House of Representatives not seeking reelection, including a record 38 Republicans. As such, the 2018 map is shaping up to be much wider open than the GOP would care to have it, especially as the midway point of Trump’s presidency approaches.

In Ryan’s case, most pollsters agree that the race in Wisconsin’s 1^st has shifted from a likely Republican hold to something closer to a tossup. Democrats in the district, who were already relishing the chance to take on the incumbent speaker, are already claiming an early victory in the battle.

Leading the charge is local ironworker Randy “Iron Stache” Bryce, a local Democratic organizer and candidate for state office for the past six years. His pointed attacks on Ryan, as well as his working man background and definitively left-wing politics, have made him the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

Republicans, meanwhile, must now scramble to both replace Ryan and his war chest, preferably with a candidate who has the same kind of charisma and appeal the Speaker does. Doing so won’t be easy as the only other notable Republican declared for the race is Paul Nehlen, a fringe candidate who was recently denounced by the state Republican Party over anti-Semitic tweets.

All is not doom and gloom, though. As the Pew Research Center points out, large years of Congressional retirement do not necessarily coincide with shifts of party control in the House. In all of the most recent party shifts (1994, 2006, 2010) none were accompanied by large turnovers by retirement. 48 left the House voluntarily in ’94 and even fewer in ’06 and ’10 (30 and 38 representatives respectively).

Congressional Republicans and those of us keeping score at home can rest assured then that they have the advantage in that regard, as 270 to Win estimates that there are 212 “safe”, “likely”, or “lean” Republican seats, compared to just 198 for Democrats. And in the Senate, despite the special election win of Doug Jones in Alabama, there are still more Democrats (and particularly more Democrats from swing states) standing in the 2018 election than Republicans, giving Republicans an edge there too.

Still, Ryan’s retirement is, at the very least, symbolically damaging for Republicans.

When John Boehner was forced out in October 2015 it was in the midst of a contentious presidential campaign and after years of already being harassed by far-right elements within the Republican Party. Boehner is 68.

Paul Ryan is 48 and has served in his post nearly half the time that his predecessor did, which is telling in itself. Things were supposed to consolidate after the 2016 presidential election, but between the constant special elections, the revolving door at the Trump White House, and the rash of Republicans stepping down, things have done anything but.

What’s next for Ryan? A worthy question, especially considering he is only 48. While the Janesville native insists that he is not eyeing any other political office (including the White House in 2020 or beyond) it would be rather surprising to see such a young, highly visible party official totally disappear from public life. After all, Ryan was willing to sign on to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign as the number two just six years ago. He’s still well-liked, especially amongst the portion of the Republican Party that would rather not deal with Trump.

What is certain is that these are uncertain times. The unexpected has become daily. And while the public eye may miss his steady hand, dashing good looks, and command of policy beyond 2018, I think it’s safe to say that there will always be a place for him, if not in D.C. then at the very least in our little corner of the Dairyland.