According to Governing Magazine, the Republican party is extremely vulnerable in the 2017 New Jersey gubernatorial race for a number of reasons. The first is that New Jersey has not elected two consecutive Republican governors since 1947, a historical pattern that is unlikely to be overturned this November.
The second is that New Jersey, a reliably blue state, has become even bluer since Christie’s first election. According to NorthJersey.com, the NJ Democratic party has registered over 160,000 more voters than the GOP registered during the past eight years. Finally and most importantly, current Governor Chris Christie has reached such unprecedented levels of unpopularity that he puts anyone associated with him and his party at a clear disadvantage. In fact, most of the Republicans who are attempting to succeed him have chosen to distance themselves from him, including his Lieutenant Governor, Kim Guadagno, who recently came out of Christie’s shadow by publicly and vociferously opposing him on several policies.
All of this means that the GOP faces long odds in order to win the governorship. In fact, it is now obvious that the Democratic nominee is essentially guaranteed the governorship.
Although the Democratic and Republican primaries will not be happening until June 6th, the nominees for both parties have been almost definitively determined. According to Matthew Clarkin, the Political Director for the Morris County Democratic Committee, which was the first county committee to endorse Phil Murphy for governor, “The 2017 Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor are all but decided. On the Republican side, there are only two real contenders for the nomination, Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno and Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. With little support from the party establishment outside of his home County of Somerset, Ciattarelli won't have enough of a base to overcome Guadagno's advantage.
On the Democratic side, Phil Murphy has notched nearly all support from Democratic figures and organizations in a state that heavily favors such endorsements. He also has significant support from progressives organizations that were more oriented towards Bernie Sanders in last year's Presidential primary.”
There is very little doubt that the Democratic party holds a clear advantage in this year’s gubernatorial race, and they intend to use it. The Democrats’ front runner since early November has been working towards the governorship for almost two years. His two main competitors, NJ Senate President Steve Sweeney and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop both dropped out of the race in late 2016. Sweeney dropped out because in the face of the immense wave of support for Phil Murphy, he saw no way forward in the race. Fulop, on the other hand, dropped out unexpectedly, stating that he would run instead for a second term as Mayor. With both men out of the running, that leaft only former Goldman Sachs executive and Ambassador to Germany, Phil Murphy.
Phil Murphy, whose greatest weakness is that he has a similar resume to the unpopular Democratic governor, Jon Corzine, has stated that he has no plans for the presidency. This means that he is committed to doing the best possible job for the state of New Jersey. He also plans to increase New Jersey’s minimum wage to 15 dollars per hour, ensure that all NJ workers are entitled to paid sick leave, promote equitable pay, increase affordable pay, expand affordable housing. His goal is to unite the state, while bringing more jobs and a better quality of life to the state.
By sending a clear and positive message, Phil Murphy has been able to unite “all but the most anti-establishment elements of the Democratic Party, and we are very proud to say that Phil will almost certainly be our next Governor,” Clarkin stated. Although the primaries are still four months away, it is already clear that Phil Murphy is the best candidate for governor, and that he will undoubtedly win both the primary and the governorship.
