Pretend you are on a game show. You are presented with three doors. Behind two are undesirable prizes and behind the other is a brand new car. You are asked to choose one door. The game show host then shows you a door from the other two which has a supply of oranges behind it. Next, the host asks you if you would like to rethink your decision and choose the other door. Do you switch doors or to you stick with your decision? This is a brain teaser that has been fooling people for generations. Most people initially think that you should stick with your original decision. Humans tend to not be very good at probability; this problem is not as intuitive as one might think.
Here is a simple explanation for which door will give you the greatest returns. When there are three doors to choose from, there is a one in three chance that there is a car behind your door. When the game show host eliminates one of the doors, the probability differs between doors. There is now a one in three chance that you have already chosen the prize and a two in three chance that behind the other door is the prize. Now that I have given you a little more information, which door do you think contains a brand new car?
