On June 8th, 2016, Hillary Clinton was projected to have a 32.8 percent higher chance of winning the election than Donald Trump – and between June and July, the estimated gap only grew wider. As time went on, however, the Republican and Democratic National Conventions ended, and the projections were separated by only one-tenth of a percent. This rollercoaster continued from August to September, and as the debates were broadcasted, each helped boost Clinton to a high of an 88.1 percent chance of winning.
Oddly enough, FiveThirtyEight has election day’s forecast as a 71.4 percent chance of winning for Clinton and a 28.6 percent chance for Trump. Gary Johnson remained at less than one percent throughout the election campaign, though he secured 5 percent of the popular vote. In a shocking turnout that proved the majority of the polls wrong, Donald Trump won the election with a total of 290 electoral votes in 29 states – 29.5 if you count Michigan, whose vote was split. However, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 800 thousand votes.
In the aftermath of the election, America has never felt so divided. There seemed to be a disappointed American for every excited one. But, not surprisingly, there was a stark contrast between those who celebrated and those who mourned. According to the New York Times, 53 percent of men voted for Donald Trump, in addition to 58 percent of white people. 67 percent of those who are white and do not have a college degree voted in favor of Trump, and white people with Christian affiliations voted strongly for him as well.
In case you haven’t been keeping track, that leaves women, people of color, college-educated voters, and those not affiliated with Christianity, most of whom voted strongly in favor of Hillary Clinton. That’s not to say, however, that women, people of color, and those who are not Christian are inherently correct, but it does bring up an interesting point: most voters choose to cast their ballot for the candidate that most fits their needs.
It’s no surprise that after rape accusations, sexist and racist comments, and ludicrous political suggestions, including the deportation of immigrants and a ban on Muslim entry to the US, these demographics have voted for Clinton. Additionally, just a few days after the election results were announced, a group in California – who voted overwhelmingly for Clinton – has proposed “Calexit,” a movement to secede from the United States by the year 2020, and potentially bring Oregon with them.
It’s no secret that a fair amount of controversy surrounds Donald Trump – and even his running mate, Mike Pence – but even without the bias of belonging to the particular groups he has expressed his distaste for, we can all agree that he has made some promises throughout his campaign that rub even some of the most dedicated Republicans the wrong way. Perhaps his most memorable promise is to “build a wall” – and not only that, but to make Mexico pay for it. There is skepticism, even amongst his supporters, that this plan will ever be put into action, and even former Texas Governor Rick Perry has said that "There are some that hear this is going to be 1,200 miles from Brownsville to El Paso, 30-foot high, and listen, I know you can’t do that.”
Another popularly discussed claim is that Trump will temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States. Following the December 2015 shooting in San Bernardino, California, Trump called for "a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on." He later admitted that the details would “have to be worked out” and “wouldn’t apply to all Muslims,” but it remained unclear when the ban would take place, and who would be exempt. Although these are the most commonly and consistently discussed campaign promises, Donald Trump has also mentioned tax cuts, “bombing and/or taking oil from” ISIS, repealing Obamacare in its entirety, and renegotiating or withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership. Even his slogan, “Make America Great Again,” which is often embroidered onto Republican Red hats, is vague, and implies big – and ludicrous – changes to the country.
As for his (potential) four years of presidency, in my opinion, the outcome remains a toss-up. Although many of his supporters claim that he will change the inner workings of America “because he’s a businessman,” there might not be as much success in the economy as they think. Donald Trump attempted to start multiple businesses – Trump Steaks, GoTrump.com (a travel search engine), Trump Airlines, Trump Vodka, Trump University, the list goes on and on – and they all failed within 6 years of startup; some never even got off the ground.
Additionally, he hasn’t built his way up from the ground, as many entrepreneurs have – his fortune started from “a small loan of a million dollars,” gifted to him by his father. Since he has claimed that he wouldn’t accept the president’s salary each year, following what will perhaps be another business failure – this time at the expense of 325 million Americans – should prove to be interesting. He may be a businessman, but with the current state of America (about 4.9 percent unemployment, at war in Afghanistan, and about $19 trillion in debt), we may miss the career politician we outvoted in the next few years.
Furthermore, on several occasions, Trump has made comments or accusations that he went on to decline. Less than a week after being elected, he has revised his statement on building the wall on our border with Mexico, and stated that he’ll keep “some” of Obamacare, and is “fine” with the same-sex marriage law. Since June, he has given seven different versions of his plan to defeat the Islamic State, and six versions of his plans for the 11 million undocumented immigrants living in America. At this rate, he could even change his mind about which party he really represents.
Just days after he was elected, riots broke out. “#NotMyPresident” began trending on social media platforms mere hours after Trump secured a win, and protestors burned flags and chanted in the streets. Petitions were written up to beg the electoral college to vote against their state, and for Clinton instead. Especially in northern America, many college campuses hosted protests. It doesn’t seem to be letting up, even moving into week two since the election results were posted.
Additionally, “new” information about Vice President Mike Pence has surfaced, which seems to be the aftershock of the jarring election results. One journalist goes so far as to describe him as “the standard Republican issue variety: religious, anti-gay, pro-life, and pro-open trade.” Acting previously as governor of Indiana, there are publicly posted lists of the mistakes he has made in his former position, including the article “Mike Pence’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year,” in which the author neatly divides each blunder in month order. Some of these include the signing of an Act that thrusted Indiana into a crippling $250 million economic panic, waiting a staggering 65 days to announce a State of Emergency for Scott County after an HIV outbreak, and providing only “maybe solutions” to the current issue of Indiana’s bridge collapses, fatal road accidents, and gridlocked traffic.
I sat down for a while and tried to come up with a realistic track for Mr. Trump’s presidency, but after days of research and five pages of information and speculation, I can’t give you one. In fact, the more I look into the facts to form my opinion, the more unsure I am of myself and my new president. I’m not sure anyone – not even Donald Trump himself – can tell you what these next four years will hold, in terms of politics, so, in conclusion, I’ll offer you one piece of advice:
Hold on tight.