Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi endorsed impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump on the basis of his colluding with a foreign power to hinder the 2020 presidential election, specifically against former Vice President Joe Biden. The inquiry centers around whether Donald Trump withheld promised US aid from Ukraine, demanding that Ukraine reopen investigations into Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, who was hired by a Ukrainian gas company.
This morning, the full transcript of the July call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine was released, and boy, is it damning. The transcript recounts Trump repeatedly urging President Zelensky to look into Joe Biden's son, during this time, having frozen aid to the country. The administration admits to withholding aid to Ukraine but claims it is due to wanting Europe to provide more aid, rather than gaining information against Biden. This transcript, however, has led to 219 House Democrats and 1 Independent to support impeachment investigations, as of 7:17 pm today.
Now, Trump has been involved in many potential scandals that provided grounds for impeachment - hell, even his basic conduct is arguably grounds for impeachment on the basis that he has corrupted the office of the Presidency. This scandal is just the last straw - Democrats really have no other choice but to call for impeachment, because if they don't, they will be setting a precedent for future leaders implying that they can get away with collusion without punishment. However, as much as I and most Democrats want Trump out of office as soon as possible, this impeachment investigation might just lead Trump straight into the White House in 2020.
There is really no way to predict the end of this investigation based on past experiences because Donald Trump is not driven by paranoia like Nixon, nor is as calm as Bill Clinton. The climate of America and the charges presented are also completely different than in past instances. But even if we cannot predict the outcome, one thing is for certain: this investigation will divide America along party lines even more. And this does not look good for Democrats come 2020.
If America becomes even more polarized, each side will stand by their side more firmly, with no hope to pull anyone across party lines. This means that both Republicans and Democrats will need either the perfect politician or a fear-mongering incendiary like Donald Trump. Now, the latter isn't good, and I am not encouraging the Democratic Party to endorse one, but an incendiary often garners staunch, immovable support, which is perfect for a presidential election. So, Republicans have their Trump, but Democrats have yet to find a talented candidate that can garner reliable support to face him.
Furthermore, Trump has already begun to spin the proceedings as a "witch hunt," labeling himself as a victim hunted by vicious Democrats. Not only is his incendiary rhetoric about the inquiry going to detract from the real issues at hand like climate change, gun control, and healthcare, if he avoids official conviction, he will claim himself to be completely blameless, undermining the Democratic Party and all their efforts to progress real legislation against his lawless presidency. So, not only will Democrats be incapable of affecting real policy change, but they will seem weak if they fail to convict and will have no hope in gaining traction if they lack a stand-out candidate, making Donald Trump an unfortunate shoo-in for the presidency.
So, before you cheer that the cheeto-in-chief is finally getting kicked out, really think about the possible consequences. As pessimistic as this sounds, this might be a lose-lose situation - Democrats have to endorse impeachment proceedings to uphold any constitutionality of the presidency, but we risk another 4 years of Donald Trump. Democrats need a success if this impeachment inquiry is approved, because if not, honestly, say goodbye to the land of the free.
