The Academy Awards, or Oscars, are on February 28, 2016, and because it is getting closer, the questions become ever more relevant: Who’s gonna win?! Will DiCaprio take home his first Oscar for Best Actor in The Revenant? Or will Eddie Redmayne steal it from him and go for the repeat for his role in The Danish Girl? Will Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu receive Best Director and Best Picture again? Will Star Wars: The Force Awakens win anything? Will Straight Outta Compton win Best Original Screenplay? I can not see into the future so I do not know for sure, but I can make some predictions as to who some of the winners might be.

1. Best Picture will go to Spotlight or The Big Short.

Why these two ensemble dramas instead of a gritty, revenge epic like The Revenant, or action-packed, genre-film like Mad Max: Fury Road, or even an independent, underdog pick like Brooklyn or Room? It’s because these movies, Spotlight and The Big Short, are not only expertly made, but they have been gaining momentum towards the Oscars by picking up awards in the ceremonies leading up to the Oscars. Although, the same could be said for The Revenant, so then perhaps the best argument for Spotlight or The Big Short is that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu won last year’s Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director with his film Birdman, and the Academy doesn’t normally go for repeat winners. Not to mention, if Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant pick up many of the technical awards or acting awards, then the Academy will most likely award Best Picture to a movie that has been getting snubbed all night, instead of making it a sweep for one or two movies.

2. The Revenant will win not Best Director.

Even though Inarritu was victorious at the Directors Guild of America’s, winning for Best Feature Film for the second straight year, and making history because of it, no history will be made for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Oscar night. His frontier-epic, The Revenant, should score major wins throughout technical categories like Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Cinematography. But look for George Miller to steal Best Director from Inarritu, and a movie like Spotlight to steal Best Picture from him. The Academy tends to favor older nominees who have had a large, critically acclaimed library of movies and that personifies George Miller. His recent masterpiece, Mad Max: Fury Road, showed that Miller still has the stuff to make enthralling action epics and social commentaries all in one gorgeously shot genre film. As previously stated, the Academy doesn’t like to repeat winners, so it probably won’t give Inarritu the coveted back-to-back Best Director or Best Picture win.

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens will not win any Oscars.

The Academy has never had its thumb on the pulse of the movie viewing nation, but even they can recognize the highest grossing film of all time, in America, for its merits right? Wrong. While Star Wars: The Force Awakens was the highest grossing film of all time, in America, and praised by critics and viewers alike, it will not beat the other movies that were also nominated for the same awards. For example, Star Wars had amazing special effects, but Ex Machina had amazing special effects also, and accomplished them on a much lesser budget. Mad Max: Fury Road also had incredible special effects and I would argue that the scripts surrounding the special effects are much stronger in both the cases of Mad Max: Fury Road and Ex Machina. Sadly, no Oscar for composer John Williams either. Yes, his score from The Force Awakens was good and evocative of the previous movies in the franchise, but Ennio Morricone’s score for Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight does similar things, evokes older movies, but brings new life into that score and that movie. Something that John Williams’ score did not. Sorry Star Wars.

4. Chris Rock will roast the Academy for not nominating enough minorities.

No matter what the Academy’s excuse is, there is not enough diversity in the nominations this year. It is a disappointing trend that needs to be corrected. Movies like Straight Outta Compton, Ex Machina, and Creed, all of which got nominated for their whiter participants, deserved at least a Best Picture nomination, if not more; the ensemble cast of Straight Outta Compton is stellar, Oscar Isaac is phenomenal in Ex Machina and Ryan Coogler’s directing of Creed is stellar, yet no other nominations were given for any of these movies. Chris Rock knows this issue, just like audience watching at home will know, and he needs to make his and our frustration clear to the Academy so that there will be changes put into place for next year’s Oscars.

5. Leonardo DiCaprio wins Best Actor.

I mean, come on. If he doesn’t win it for The Revenant, he’ll never win one. Jokes aside, Leonardo DiCaprio deserves this Oscar, even if he had won one before this. He, and the whole crew of Inarritu’s The Revenant, suffered enough through the process of shooting this movie. And everything points to DiCaprio taking this one home: he played against his usual type (a fast-talking, pretty boy), broke personal beliefs (he ate meat for the role), learned new languages (2 native american languages), and suffered harsh filming conditions, all in the name of getting the character of Hugh Glass perfect for the movie, and the Academy usually awards these kinds of commitments. His role in The Revenant may not be his best, but it is certainly Oscar-worthy.