Southern Californians were teased this winter when a fast moving winter storm drenched much of the southland early this year. This rain brought the average rainfall for the season to a near normal level. But this 10-day heat wave was not what Californians were expecting.
So where are the El Niño storms?
To find out where these El Niño storms are, we must first understand the circumstances in which these storms arise. And for that we turn to meteorologist Ari Sarsalari.
As Sarsalari explains, an El Niño is when the Pacific waters near the equator "get warmer than usual, affecting the weather around the globe." More specifically, North and South America.
Sounds simple enough. And even simpler, the sea surface temperatures charted during the last 6 months show above average readings resulting in one of the strongest El Niño conditions ever recorded. The sea surface temperatures for the month of January this year show record warming over the mid-Pacific.
The question then should not be whether there is or is not an El Niño, but rather, where are the signs of El Niño? Where is the wet winter that we in SoCal were promised by forecasts in the fall of 2015?
Dallas Raines, chief meteorologist of KABC-TV in Los Angeles, explains why there is a lack of winter storm activity in the southland. This unusually warm weather is the product of areas of high pressure west of California pushing the storms north and keeping SoCal sunny and dry.
This means that rather than record-breaking downpours, Southern California has seen a record breaking heatwave. This 10-day February heat wave has all but washed away the hopes for a wet winter in the southland. Presidents Day and the few days after are expected to be in the low 90’s.
Raines of KABC-TV is also optimistic in saying that there will be more winter storms to come. And for that, I can give him some credit. Winter is only two-thirds over and there is still time for rain in the near future. And in the weather business, only time can tell. California is still getting rain, though mostly north of Los Angeles, and every drop counts when the state is in a drought.
With the prediction of the monster El Niño for this year, California was hoping to pull itself from the grips of a 4-year long drought that has created mandatory water cutbacks across the state, though snow is heavy in the High Sierras and water levels in large reservoirs are rising which are the primary sources for SoCal’s municipal water.
And though the rain is needed here locally, perhaps Southlanders should be cautioned to not use past El Niños to predict future events, but rather, use it as a guide to show that strong storms are still likely, but only likely at best. Even the best predictions are just that, an educated guess into the mind of mother nature.
But this lack of rain and heat in its place is the price we pay for living in an aired climate. Then again, perhaps this “messiah,” this “child,” this “El Niño” destined to come save SoCal from the drought is nothing more than a grim reality check, telling us that we are doomed for eternal damnation in this arid wasteland.
