With awards season now in full swing, the speculation of which films will be nominated for Best Picture must begin! It's been a fairly good year for the arthouse film, but not nearly as crowded as last year. Still, after Bohemian Rhapsody took home Best Drama Motion Picture, it's clear the award is anyone's to take home.
There are typically nine films that are nominated for Best Picture but I think two films are vying for that final spot. With that being said, let's take a look at who I think is the most likely to be nominated.
Note: These are in no particular order, and I'll also give a percentage representing how likely I think a particular film is of being nominated.
1. A Star Is Born (>99%)
"A Star Is Born" is one of the frontrunners to actually win Best Picture at this year's Oscars. While I liked the film, I had a hard time getting behind it. However, the performances themselves are great, I liked the music, and it's an overall complete film that coneys a strong, emotional story. I would bet all the money in the world this film would be nominated.
2. Roma (>99%)
A film about a housekeeper in Mexico City, "Roma" was released to critical acclaim and is currently available on Netflix. It recently won four Critic's Choice Awards including Best Picture. This film is making sure that "A Star Is Born" winning is not a done deal.
3. Green Book (95%)
I absolutely loved "Green Book" and it has been nominated for Best Picture in every conceivable awards show. While I think its chances at winning are thin, it's almost for certain a nomination waits in its future. The only problem is that some people see the film as boring.
4. The Favourite (>99%)
"The Favourite" is my favorite (pun intended) of 2018 and features excellent performances, writing, cinematography, and musical selections. I fail to find a single monumental fault in this film and see it as the dark horse in the Best Picture race.
5. BlacKkKlansman (95%)
Another film with great writing and excellent performances, the film about the first black KKK member will almost certainly collect a nomination. Like "Get Out" from last year, I see "BlacKkKlansman" having a better chance at winning a screenplay award rather than Best Picture.
6. Black Panther (70%)
"Black Panther" set a whole new bar regarding how good superhero films could be. The performances, effects, and writing are all great and this would definitely be the audience favorite.
7. Vice (55%)
A lot are predicting a nomination for "Vice," but I feel slightly nervous about its chances. The structure of the film is a bit odd and I didn't particularly love Christian Bale's performances as much as other people do. We'll see about this one.
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (90%)
Another great story from Barry Jenkins, it is almost a certainty that the film is nominated for Best Picture. It's not as good as "Moonlight," but it's a dang good film.
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (50%)
I have a hard time seeing Bohemian Rhapsody not getting nominated after winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes, but it'll definitely be the worst film of the group if it is nominated. That's not to say that it isn't good, but it would be a film with one of the lowest RT scores at 62%. It's in a fight with "First Man."
10. First Man (50%)
"Rhapsody" winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes was not good news for "First Man." What I think plagued this film was its early release date in October. Buzz for the biopic has died down immensely since October and has been really overshadowed by Bohemian Rhapsody. I loved First Man, but it's in a fight.
