Democrats have a lot of optimism going into the midterms, but they have to win 23 seats in the House in order to take control. They have roughly a 70% chance of winning back the house, in what many are calling a "Blue Wave" election year. Nate Silver, from the website FiveThirtyEight, estimates that the Dems have a four-in-five chance of taking back the House. Historically, the party not in the White House usually does well in midterm elections. On a generic ballot, Democrats are slightly favored over their GOP counterparts. An average of polls puts the Democrats at 6.8 points ahead of the Republicans. However, FiveThirtyEight.com still gives the Republicans a 30% chance of keeping their current majority. If the Democrats do win back the House in November, they will have more power to overturn Trump's policies and pursue their own goals.
While the Democrats are sliding right into the house, they have a huge climb ahead of them in the Senate.
With ruby red states like Texas and Arizona within reach, the Democrats have been running neck and neck with their Republican counterparts. However, in states where there are Democratic senators like North Dakota and Indiana, the road ahead seems a little daunting. The Democrats overall, have a 30% chance of winning control in the Senate according to FiveThirtyEight.com. In the forecast, the Democrats have around an 80% chance of gaining one seat. This makes the breakdown of the Senate 50/50. With 50 Republican and 50 Democrats, passing bills and legislature can be a little tricky. Most votes in the Senate need a 2/3 majority or 67 seats. With the chamber becoming increasingly polarized, there will have to be some cases in which the voters may end up in s plot right down the middle. In that car, the Vice President, Mike Pence, would have to travel to the Capitol Building and cast the tie-breaking vote that the Republican will overall have control, due to the fact that Pence is a Republican.member of the GOP.
Election day is less than 50 days away. In the blink of an eye, voters across the country will cast their ballots to choose the next leaders of our country. We will have to wait until then to see what will happen, but with the climate we are in right now, it seems anything can and will happen.