Before I get called delusional for making this prediction, hear me out. Jaylen Brown will be the best player to come out of the 2016 NBA draft class, and the Boston Celtics made the right move by drafting him. No, I am not making this prediction strictly based on the fact I am a Celtics fan, as I was also critical of the Celtics not making a trade before the draft. But watching this kid play on an everyday basis has really opened my eyes. Lets start by breaking down the other top choices in the draft.
Ben Simmons: First overall draft pick out of LSU. Simmons caught the attention of scouts from his flashy passes an outstanding ability to run in transition. Standing at 6 feet 10 inches, Simmons can play the point guard role, which impressed scouts even more. However, those same physical skills can be what weakens him going into the NBA. First off, Simmons does not have the work ethic. He often takes plays off, jogs up and down the floor and even had trouble with classroom attendance at LSU. Scouts and fans around the league have gotten way too caught up in his flashy passing and to realize he only averaged 5 assists per game in college, which is nothing special for a supposed point guard. Also, the reason why he had to play the point guard role is because he simply does not have the length for a big man. Although he stands almost seven feet tall, his wingspan is below league average, allowing opposing players to easily grab rebounds over him. He can not play the role of a guard, because he can not shoot. He went 14 - 45 on jumpers his whole freshman year. Not only can’t he shoot, he does not even attempt to, leaving absolutely no offensive threat for defenders. Simmons game will not translate well into the NBA, as he does not have a defined role and his jump shot looks almost too awkward to fix. Easy bust.
Brandon Ingram: Second Overall pick out of Duke. If there is anyone that can challenge Brown to be the best player, it is Ingram. The opposite of Simmons, Ingram is a great shooter with great length that can fit multiple different positions at an NBA level. Many scouts believe his thin body will be his biggest weakness. However, this is nothing some time in the weight room cant fix. Ingram’s biggest issues come from his lack of ability to get past defenders. He does not have a very quick burst to the basket making it much easier for NBA defenders to guard his shot. The reason for his success in college of finishing around the rim also came because of his great length. However, his leaping ability and athleticism seems to be below average making it easy for an NBA center to defend a drive to the rim. Ingram has a great shot, but with the lack of success driving to the basket, it will be hard for him to get open enough to consistently bury his three point shots. He will be a good player, but nothing special.
Dragan Bender: I’ve never been a big fan of players who are projected high in the draft who play overseas. The competition is significantly worse so players tend to easily dominate. The problem with Bender is he never even showed dominance overseas. Averaging less than 6 points a game and seeming like a role player more than a star. Sure this is because he is young, and not fully developed but you would expect to see more from a fourth overall pick. Bender ha great athleticism and range for his size, but lacks much explosiveness. I’ve seen too many seven footers from leagues in Europe who have great shooting ability, but turn into nothing more. He will be a solid role player in the NBA, nothing more.
Kriss Dunn: One of the few high draft picks who decided to play through his senior year. If the Celtic’s backcourt wasn't so crowded we might have been looking at him in a Celtics jersey this year. Many scouts raved over his ability to steal the ball and lockdown point guard because of his athleticism. However, this is where highlights can be deceiving. For starters, his high rate of steals came with a price. Dunn was one of the leaders in the fouls category, receiving at least four fouls thirteen times in his final season in Providence. In college, he could get away with gambling on passes, but it wont fly in the NBA. Also, his great size and athleticism, will now be considered average going up against some of the most talented players in the world. Dunn will be a good role player in the NBA, but unless he can settle down on D and develop a solid offensive game, he will not be more than that.
Finally now, Jaylen Brown:
To start, this kid is the one of the smartest players in the league. Choosing to go to U Cal his freshman year for academics and taking graduate level courses seems unheard of from someone only going for one year. He is a great teammate who is knows basketball. The thing that separates brown from the rest however is his athleticism. Brown’s athletic ability is greater than most current NBA players. He is a great slasher who has the confidence to take it to the rim against anyone. A lockdown defender who can play and guard multiple positions. The key with Brown is he already has the intangibles you can’t teach. He is a physical beast, a very smart and well liked player and hustles every time he is on the court. The few things he does need to work on is his shot, which is not horrible and his handles. Both of which can be fixed with a little tweaking. All this being said, I predict Jaylen Brown will easily be a franchise player and a multiple time all-star.
