The future. We cannot touch it, see it, taste it, or feel it, yet it is something we think about, talk about, and spend much of our day preparing for.
Although no one can look into the future or predict it, a general outline of the future can be formed by looking at mega trends that have been, and still are, taking place within society.
For those of you old enough and unfortunate enough to have solved jigsaw puzzles, you’ll remember basic jigsaw strategy: start with the edges, piece together the predominant figures, and then fill the leftover empty space with the more ambiguous pieces.
The future is like a jigsaw puzzle, albeit a puzzle where we don’t know the picture until we put the last piece in (and by that point, it’s the present).
The outline of the picture are the forces and mega trends that will-and in some cases, already have- bring about a lasting influence on society. The predominant graphics of the picture can be seen as the major companies and organizations that will, to the best of their ability, take advantage of these trends (or introduce a disruptive technology that could start a whole new jigsaw puzzle).
The fill-in pieces are the entrepreneurs and startups doing their best to make a splash in a big pond. Some of these pieces are unnecessary or ineffective and will be thrown out. Sometimes, there will be a missing piece in the puzzle, and an innovative and dynamic startup can fill that void. Even more rarely, that start-up can become one of the predominant images of the puzzle.
The purpose of this article isn’t to predict the future or talk about puzzles. No one can do the former and no one likes to do the latter. Rather, it is to describe the forces and mega trends that have, and will continue to, disrupt and influence society as we know it. Think of each category below as an edge of the puzzle.
1. Access is more important than ownership.
In other words, few things, except for consumer staples, will be owned, while everything else will be consumed via subscription and sharing.
With Uber, you don’t own a car, but you have access to one.
With AirBNB, you have access to a temporary living space.
With Alexa and Siri, you have access to a personal assistant.
With Spotify, you don’t buy music, you subscribe to it.
With Amazon Web Services, you have access to the cloud without owning a server.
With Netflix/Apple TV, you have access to movies and tv shows without owning DVDs.
With Audible, you can read (or listen to) books without owning them.
With iFlickr and Instagram, we have access to and can share pictures without having the physical copies.
With WeWork, you don’t even own workspace. You share it.
More and more startups are popping up that are based around giving access to products without the consumer actually having to own it (including bikes, clothes, tools, etc).
2. Our time will be spent in four different places.
Somewhere to work (University or Job), somewhere to socialize (coffee shops, bars, restaurants), somewhere to live, and, most importantly, the web. The web is now the “commons area” where much of the future’s commerce and socializing will take place. It is the market where we will buy and sell goods, share and absorb content, and interact with our “friends”.
Friends can be those we’ve met in real life and stay in touch with through social media, or those we’ve never met but have a shared community built around a common interest.
We don't need libraries; we have wikipedia. We don't need water coolers, we have Twitter.
Augmented Reality, Instagram, and websites are the new storefronts, and online reviewers and influencers are product’s best sales reps.
3. As materialism and the cost to produce and buy material goods falls, the value of creativity, thought leadership, product development/user design, and experiences will continue to rise.
The fastest growing sport in the United States right now is obstacle course racing. Why would running several miles drenched in mud, sweat, blood and tears appeal to a society obsessed with technology and convenience? In short, because it is the antithesis to the society we find ourselves in.
We are obsessed with productivity, convenience, and a pain-free, connected life style. Yet our society also finds itself busier, overwhelmed, lonelier, and enveloped in mental illness more so than ever before.
Obstacle course racing delivers a memorable experience, forces one to be in the moment, and gives an escape from technology. An experience like that, along with an ability to make its participants feel a strong sense of community and shared mission, will only rise in value.
4. Everything will be connected, interactive, and will talk to us.
Already, our smart watches and smart phones are extensions of our hands; we fill weird without having them on us at all times. The assimilation of the biological and the digital will only increase. Amazon is working on augmented reality glasses, while Elon Musk’s Neuralink seeks to literally connect our brains to a machine interface. All of our products will be interactive and will communicate. Our phones, watches, tablets, TV remotes, cars, security systems, and thermostats will respond to our voice, talk back to us, and communicate with each other.
Ironman had Jarvis. We have Alexa and Siri.
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The future is coming at a faster that ever before; it won't be long before robots themselves are solving the puzzle. A puzzle that we, as humans, will have a harder and harder time fitting in to.