By the time the world’s best tennis players arrive in Flushing Meadows, New York, for the U.S. Open every year, the season is already beginning to wind down. This is especially true for the 2016 season, however, as it is one of those exceptional years when the Rio Olympics has to somehow cram itself into the already too-full schedule of professional tennis. Players have to be careful not to burn out too quickly and pace themselves accordingly in order to maximize their chances of success.
It is for that very reason that Roger Federer, arguably the greatest male tennis player in the history of the sport, will not be playing in this year’s U.S. Open (the last time that happened was in 1999). At 35, Federer is one of the oldest players still playing professional tennis, and as such is particularly prone to injury. He had the first surgery of his career earlier this year, and because of that, has already missed most of the 2016 season.
However, Federer released a statement earlier this summer expressing hopes of continuing to play for “another few years,” and must reduce the load of tournaments on his schedule. Although it is a very bitter pill to swallow, if he wants to take better care of his aging body and be able to compete with players nearly 20 years his junior, he has no other choices at his disposal, and he knows that.
With Federer out, Novak Djokovic of Serbia and Andy Murray of Great Britain can be said to be the two top favorites for winning the tournament. Djokovic is the world number one and defending champion, having beaten Federer in the final last year, and therefore is the player to beat. Yet Djokovic hasn't exactly had smooth sailing this summer; after winning the French Open for the first time in his career, Djokovic crashed out of Wimbledon early (where he was the defending champion) and later fell in the first round of the Olympics as well.
Djokovic has claimed that he has been suffering from a wrist injury over the past few weeks and still isn't feeling one hundred percent healthy for the U.S. Open yet. How much of a problem the injury will be for Djokovic remains uncertain, but the biggest test for him at this year’s Open will surely be in his head -- he has to put the tough losses of this past summer behind him if he wants to defend his title this year. If he can remain mentally calm and dig himself out of the tighter spots in his matches, as he is famous for doing, then rest assured Djokovic will still be a very dangerous player.
Although once again playing second fiddle to Djokovic, Andy Murray has had a much better last two months than the world number one; he won Wimbledon in July and then went on to win the Olympic gold medal in Rio a month later (successfully defending his gold medal from the previous Summer Olympics, something no male player has ever done before) and ultimately going on a twenty-seven match winning streak during the summer. Murray has also won the U.S. Open once before (back in 2012), and seeing as he is coming off one of the best summers of his career, Murray has put himself in the best possible position to be victorious in Flushing Meadows once again.
Other potential contenders for the title could come in the form of Stan Wawrinka (a two-time Grand Slam champion and semi-finalist at the Open), Marin Cilic (who won his only Grand Slam title at the Open two years ago and just beat Murray last week in the finals of the Western and Southern Open), Rafael Nadal (a two-time Open champion and the doubles gold medalist at the Rio Olympics earlier this month) and Kei Nishikori (the bronze medalist at the Rio Olympics and one-time finalist at the Open).
One of the names mentioned above will surely win the tournament; however, potential spoilers could come in the form of young-gun Nick Kyrgios (the recent BB&T Atlanta Open champion), Juan Martin del Potro (a one-time Open champion who is on a spectacular return from injury, having beaten Djokovic in the Olympics and earning the silver medal), Milos Raonic (this year’s Wimbledon finalist) and Steve Johnson (the new American number one and coming off of a deep run at the Olympics).
My predictions.
Assuming Djokovic remains healthy, I find it hard to root against him, as he has been unquestionably the most dominant player over the last several years. However, a deep four or five-setter against Murray could prove problematic (Murray won his sole U.S. Open title by beating Djokovic in five sets), so as far as I’m concerned, Djokovic is only the slight favorite over Murray to win the tournament. Next in line (though nowhere near the top two) are Rafael Nadal, Marin Cilic and Stan Wawrinka -- I expect one of those three to make it to the semifinals, if not the finals. The only chance they have at winning the title, however, is if both Djokovic and Murray fall early and essentially clear the path to the top for them. I’m not holding my breath on that one, though.
On the women’s side, Serena Williams is the once again the clear favorite. Yet she will be hearing Angelique Kerber knocking loudly on the door, as Kerber has just won the silver medal in Rio and beat Serena earlier this year in the finals of this year’s Australian Open. Although Serena still has the tools to beat Kerber, her focus has faltered as of late; as such, she is more vulnerable than usual, but still impenetrable to just about the rest of the women’s field, effectively neutralizing them. Barring a freak upset in the early rounds, Serena already has a free ride to the finals, and if she can keep her focus and overcome Kerber in her last match, then she also has a ticket to her 23rd Grand Slam title.
What are your predictions for the 2016 U.S. Open? Leave a comment below with your top five predictions!