Many Republican leaders are dissatisfied with the current batch of candidates. Trump has alienated a large portion of the electorate with his insensitive comments. Cruz’s views are too far right of center for him to be seen as a viable general election candidate. Kasich seems to be a more viable general election candidate, but has not received enough of the primary vote to give voters the impression he can unite the party.
Some Republicans think a contested convention will be the solution to all of their problems, and that the perfect candidate will appear to save the Party, but is this really true? Of course not. Can a presumptively democratic system deny the nomination to a front runner? As Trump says, there may be riots when the popular will is not expressed through the nomination process.
The Republican Party is not a democratic organization. It is a private organization that determines its own rules and its own presidential candidate. Most of the time, this is not an issue. The party usually has control over which candidates can run, and the voters commonly unify around the eventual candidate fairly early in the process. Obviously, this has not been the case in 2016.
The party also has other motivations than to express the popular will. It fears that a Trump nomination will provoke backlash during the mid-term elections and cause Democrats to gain control of Congress and many swing states. These fears are certainly rational, as many polls show that a Trump candidacy would be very unpopular among independent voters as well as more moderate Republicans. This will certainly have an effect on the current and midterm elections.
However, the potential for intraparty backlash may be more consequential for the Republican Party if it does deny expression of the popular will. Right now, a majority of the party has coalesced around Trump as the eventual nominee. For better or worse, he is the leading candidate.
If the party were to deny him the nomination at a contested convention, it could lead to backlash from some of Trump’s rowdiest supporters. This would lead to disunity among party members and could certainly hurt the eventual nominee’s chances of winning in November.
The idea of a contested convention is somewhat irresponsible for Republicans, but what is even more irresponsible is the notion that there is a perfect candidate waiting to take the spotlight.
Just where do the Republicans think this candidate is going to come from?
The party leadership? Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has proven to be as divisive at the front runners, especially after the recent issues with the Supreme Court nominee. House Speaker Paul Ryan is the “go to guy” for many who favor a contested convention, but he has consistently denied any interest in the nomination. Even if he did want to, recent polling shows he has no clear advantage over Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. People have even brought 2012 nominee Mitt Romney up as a possible replacement, but there is little to no chance of this happening.
How about the 17 candidates we already had? Republicans all but used up all of their promising options already. Jeb Bush was the accomplished veteran with name recognition. Marco Rubio was the exiting young candidate with a bright future. Even Rand Paul was supposed to lead the charge of a new generation of Republican voters. The rest of the Republican field included governors, senators, and successful businesspeople.
The party is pinning its hopes on the back of an unnamed candidate at a contested candidate. The problem is that this candidate doesn’t exist.
The recklessness of the party up until this point has created a no-win situation for the Republicans. First, they could allow Trump to get the nominee. This would obviously hurt the GOP’s image, as well as future election chances. Or they could take the nomination away from Trump and find a candidate more suitable for them. This would undoubtedly incite riots and hurt the chances of the Republicans becoming a cohesive party, especially if they can’t find a good replacement (which they won’t).
Personally, I hope they go for the latter. A contested convention might hurt Republican chances right now, but a Trump nomination could destroy its image for decades to come.