One of the lasting impacts of this upcoming presidential election is the potential change in the ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court.
A president's term lasts only four years, with an additional four depending on the success of a re-election campaign. Therefore, the president has a relatively short time to influence the nation's economic and foreign policy. However, the Supreme Court can continue to implement a president's agenda for decades beyond four or eight years, because the justices nominated for a lifetime term by the president are more likely to share similar ideologies towards political issues.
There're more at stake than just the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Currently, the Supreme Court is divided among four conservative appointed justices and four liberal appointed justices. The court was originally split in favor of the conservatives, but with the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, there is a vacancy which needs to be filled. But it's unlikely that the position will be filled since the Republican controlled Senate is declining to give a vote to Merrick Garland who was nominated as justice by President Obama. There is a chance that the Supreme Court will be liberal leaning since the retirement of Chief Justice Earl Warren, or it will continue its conservative tilt based on whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump achieves victory on Election Day.
In the upcoming years, it's very possible that the court may not lean only on liberals or conservatives but may be solidly attuned to a specific ideology as several justices are getting ready to retire.
Prominent justices who may step down from the court include Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Anthony Kennedy, Stephen Breyer and Clarence Thomas. All justices have served at least 20 years and are older than 75, with Ginsburg and Breyer nominated by Bill Clinton and Thomas and Kennedy nominated by Ronald Reagan. The retirements of these justices in the next four or eight years can lead to a super majority of either liberals or conservatives in the court which has had a major impact in just the past 10 years in upholding Obamacare, legalizing same sex marriage and striking down campaign finance laws on corporate donations.
Another major battle that heavily relates to the Supreme Court's future is the attempt of both parties to secure a majority in the Senate.
A divided government would most likely halt any confirmation of justices to the Supreme Court, for the opposing party would not like an ideological opposite to be nominated for a lifetime term. A prominent example of this happened in the past year when the death of Antonin Scalia prompted President Obama to nominate Merrick Garland. In order for a justice to be elevated to the Supreme Court, he or she must be “confirmed” by the Senate's majority vote. Since the nomination of Merrick Garland would lead to a liberal leaning Court, the Senate, which is majority composed of Republicans, is refusing to take a vote because it would hand an advantage to the Democrats.
The standstill of the court at eight members has led to many split decisions, including U.S. v. Texas where an injunction on President Obama’s immigration program – put in place by a lower court – was upheld. Another example includes Friedreichs v. California Teachers Association, which upheld the right of public sector state unions in California to collect union fees from non-members, but it created no precedent.
Upcoming cases in the future include: legal challenges to North Carolina’s HB2 – which restricted the rights of transgendered individuals to use the bathroom of their birth gender – potential LGBT workplace discrimination conflicts and whether or not churches can be excluded from secular aid programs if there's no issue regarding the Establishment Clause.
Therefore, this election will not only transform the next eight years of our nation but also transform a branch of our government that has the “final” say on the constitutionality of many programs and actions undertaken by future presidents and congressmen. This presidential election is about more than just Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.