When Gary Johnson asked his fateful question, “What is Aleppo?”, earlier this year on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, I was dismissive of his not knowing it. I was a strong Gary Johnson supporter at the time, and still maintain a powerful interest in both his direction and the direction of the Libertarian Party in the future.
I acknowledged that the Libertarians have an issue with isolationism, but argued that such a misstep should not disqualify Johnson from running for president. And indeed, it shouldn’t have, considering the plethora of missteps that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton committed.
That being said, the recent rebel losses in the city of Aleppo to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a sobering reminder that Aleppo truly is an integral crux to the entire Syrian Civil War and where the larger question of moderate stability and democracy in the region lie.
Having been battered by Assad forces for the past six months, the Russian-backed government troops have made significant gains in the northern Syrian city, relegating the rebel forces to little more than a few neighborhoods in the southeast of the city. The cost on civilian and military life has been catastrophic as the fighting has grown increasingly gritty.
The forces finally agreed to a ceasefire on December 15th to allow for the evacuation of civilians and retreating rebels. The same ceasefire had long been a point of contention, with Assad and the Russians repeatedly playing around the subject in sit-downs.
What this rebel loss means for the conflict is as yet unclear. With the fall of Aleppo Assad’s forces have essentially consolidated the four largest Syrian cities under their control (Aleppo, Damascus, Homs, and Latakia), perhaps indicating that rebels could turn to more guerilla style tactics, mobilizing hit-and-run in order to terrorize the Assad forces.
However, there is every indication that that might not be the case either, as the actual territory the Assad government controls is very small in comparison to that controlled by the rebels, the Islamic State, and the Kurds. Northern Syria in particular, outside of Aleppo, is rather hostile country to Assad’s government.
The new ascension of a Trump administration in Washington also throws a wrench into the mix, as Trump has been very vocal about defeating the Islamic State in the region, but also somewhat accepting of a continued Assad government. Trump’s seeming deference to Vladimir Putin and Russia, coupled with Russia’s ties to the Assad regime, make it unclear what Washington’s response will be to rebel groups the US has aided up until this point.
Trump’s backing of Assad is no guarantee though, as the Iranians have also been supportive of the Syrian regime and Trump has, conversely, been very critical of the Iranians, specifically in regards to their nuclear capabilities and the deal made with the Obama administration about two years ago.
All of this equivocates one of the largest and messiest conflicts that the world has seen in a long time. It’s multi-faceted, its nuanced, and it will likely take an equally complex approach to remedy. Yet, no solutions have appeared just yet, and all the while some 5 million displaced refugees and those civilians who remain in the country are getting little to no relief from anyone.
Sorry Gary Johnson. You would’ve made a decent president, but the situation is just to critical not to know “what is Aleppo”.