The Toronto Maple Leafs, one of the most profitable franchises in the NHL with an insanely large fanbase, is poised to eventually break through and win a Stanley Cup in the near future with a talented core, even after first round exits in the past 3 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Because of the signing of forward John Tavares last summer to a seven-year, $77 million contract, the Leafs sit with less cap flexibility than they expected. The decisions that Leafs GM Kyle Dubas, similar to Kevin Cheveldayoff's in Winnipeg, has to make this summer could be the difference between consistent deep playoff runs and continued first-round exits.
The Leafs' young core forward group of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander all have played up to or beyond expectations, increasing their value since their time began in the NHL in 2016-17. Tavares' signing has made it tougher for the Leafs' management to sign the three aforementioned stars to team friendly deals. Nylander held out into the season before getting a six-year, $45 million contract on December 1, 2018. Matthews, set to become a restricted free agent on July 1st of this year, signed a five year, $58 million deal in February. Both contracts have been criticized a bit, as Nylander's career high in points is 61, while Matthews has missed significant time with injuries the past two seasons.
With Marner, coming off of a 94 point campaign, still yet to be signed as a restricted free agent, and just $9 million in projected cap space (assuming an $83 million salary cap for 2018-19), this is a going to be an interesting summer for Dubas and the Leafs. Forwards Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen are also restricted free agents and will expect pay raises after putting up 43 and 44 points respectively in 2018-19. Marner could get anywhere from $9 million to $11 million, meaning trades are almost certain to be necessary for the Leafs.
Forward Nazem Kadri is making $4.5 million per year until 2022, recognized by nearly everyone around the league as a good contract, and is a possible trade candidate, especially after his playoffs suspension this season that hurt their chances to knock off the Boston Bruins. If there isn't a suitable trade offer for the 28-year-old Kadri, will Dubas be forced to deal Kapanen or Johnsson? Some have even suggested trading Nylander less than a year after signing his big contract, as his 2018-19 season performance after the holdout was disappointing.
Even after trading for defenseman Jake Muzzin early in 2019, the Leafs' defensive core is still not strong enough to make consistent deep playoff runs, and with defenseman Jake Gardiner set to become an unrestricted free agent and likely out of Toronto on July 1st, the Leafs need help on the back end. With the cap crunch that the Leafs face, many have suggested trading out a young forward like Kapanen, Nylander, or Johnsson, for a solid defenseman on a cheaper contract. Maybe even throw in forwards Zach Hyman and/or Connor Brown to the trade in order to shed salary.
Regardless, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a difficult situation this summer that will force management to work extremely hard to set the franchise up for success in the short and long term future. Any of the aforementioned options will impact the Leafs for years to come.