Border Security. Everyone's favorite topic to talk about, right? Probably not. President Trump is making a last-second push to make his campaign promise of a border wall go through Congress, but the push has been met with scrutiny from those within and outside his party. Many of those that voted for Trump are angered by the time it has taken Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress to push for border security. Especially after Republicans lost control of the house during the 2018 elections.
Trump and Congressional Republicans both know that it is now or never to pass a bill that funds Trump's wall. Of course, Congressional Democrats strongly oppose the push for a border wall. Democrats put themselves in a situation where they have no choice but to oppose the wall's funding because after calling Trump's strong immigration policies racist throughout his entire first term, they are forced to oppose the wall's funding or risk appearing weak before their supporters.
Possible Consequences for Trump
Here is the problem for Trump. If he does not get funding for a wall, it is very difficult to see him winning in 2020. So obviously, he is going to push for this funding like his presidency depends on it, because in many individual's eyes it does. It would be very difficult for Trump to run on his 'keeping his promises' statements again if he fails to accomplish one of his biggest campaign promises. Also, Trump's stance on securing the border and cutting down illegal immigration is a winning issue, because many Americans view it as a very big problem.
According to a recent Gallup poll, immigration tops the most important problem list at a mark of 22%. Immigration concerns are rising among Republicans, Independents, and Democrats alike, and that is one of the reasons why Trump was able to overcome expectations, and best his opponent, Hillary Clinton. So, with immigration being such an important issue for Americans, it would be incredibly damaging politically if Trump does not live up to his voter's expectations on secure borders.
The Possible Consequences for Democrats
The best scenario for Democrats would be to stop Trump's push for a wall. For a few reasons: 1. Trump would likely lose his effort at re-election. 2. Democrats would have stopped the Republicans last-second effort to pass funding for the wall, and once Democrats assume power in the house Trump's agenda becomes very difficult to go through Congress. 3. Again, Democrats attempted to paint the majority of Trump's stances on immigration as being racist, so if they were to hold on funding for the wall it would seem to betray much of what the Democrats had been saying for the last two years.
Since immigration will likely be heavily debated throughout the 2020 election process, this strategy may backfire for Democrats. If Trump points the finger at Democrats for his inability to find funding for a wall, it could force Democrats into a weak political position where they have to defend being pro-illegal immigration. Though, it is more likely that many Trump supporters feel unsatisfied with Trump's results. The goal for Democrats would be to appeal to on the fence voters. Waving the 'border security is not a problem' banner would end up in Trump's favor, so Democrats would be smart to oppose this wall funding, but not going in the complete polarized position.
From a quick glance, the government shutdown may appear to be related to basically nothing. Just typical disagreements and debates within our completely polarized and divided political system, and you may be right. However, the result of this shutdown could greatly impact the 2020 election.
With this in mind, I do not see Democrats or Republicans coming to a quick decision. In fact, it may turn out that this very subject becomes a topic during one of the presidential debates. Either way, it seems clear that both Trump, Republicans, and Democrats have things to win or lose based on the result of this shutdown.