The Dallas Stars took a big step forward in the 2018-19 season, making the playoffs, winning a series, before losing to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion St Louis Blues in a double-overtime Game 7. After some offseason moves that on paper could boost the lineup significantly, many in the hockey world expect them to take another step forward towards a Stanley Cup. To me, they are still a pretender in the race for the Stanley Cup.
The Stars added forwards Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry in the offseason as free agents. Pavelski scored 38 goals last year for the San Jose Sharks, and many expect a similar season for him in Dallas. Perry was bought out by the Anaheim Ducks after a long tenure in Orange County, in major part because of his lack of production and injuries compared to his previously large contract. Because of Perry's career accomplishments in Anaheim, many are banking on him rebounding to league average if not better. Pavelski and Perry are 35 and 34 years old respectively, and it is not unrealistic to expect their performance to decline as they age.
Captain Jamie Benn had a down year in 2018-19, putting up just 53 points in 78 games while making $9.5 million per season. Benn is 30 years old and many expect a rebound year from him as well. Benn's skating is getting worse and worse and we cannot jump to conclusions that he will automatically bounce back to 75+ points just because he plays with Alexander Radulov and Tyler Seguin. This means that Dallas will need additional production from their depth.
The depth players in Dallas are below average and may not add the scoring touch that they will need to win games. It is unrealistic to expect goalies Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin to have over .930 and .920 save percentages, which are incredible, again in 2019-20. Blake Comeau, Radek Faksa, Mattias Janmark, and Andrew Cogliano are all average forwards who didn't show much offense for them last year. Martin Hanzal has been a huge disappointment for Dallas, injured for most of his time in Texas, all while making $4.75 million, a hefty price for someone who isn't scoring much.
Younger forwards Roope Hintz and Jason Dickinson showed incredible promise in their rookie year with the Stars last season. Because of the mediocrity surrounding them, Dickinson and especially Hintz will need to increase their production in order to remain a playoff team. It is not guaranteed that a full season for each of them will mean a huge jump in points.
The Stars' roster overall is pretty old for the NHL. Benn, Radulov, Bishop, Khudobin, Comeau Cogliano, Hanzal, Perry, Andrej Sekera, Pavelski, and Roman Polak are all 30 or older, which is a large portion of their team. Older players tend to get hurt more often, and guys like Sekera, Hanzal, Perry, and Bishop have lengthy injury histories in the recent past, making it difficult for me to see the entire roster stay relatively healthy.
All of these factors, whether it be the age of their new additions and overall roster, the mediocre scoring depth, and injury concerns, make it hard for the Stars to be a contender for the 2020 Stanley Cup. I would love to be proved wrong, as I like the Stars more than most teams, but it appears unlikely that they will be a powerhouse.