Tensions in Spain may have just escalated to an all-time high between their government and one of its most populous and important regions. The Catalonian government, disregarding court orders from Madrid, has decided to go ahead with its referendum on October 1^st to decide whether or not the region should become an independent nation. The upshot could be immense and could affect multiple nations across the E.U., from Spain to England and beyond them.

The Catalans, based in the northeast of Spain, have felt slighted for years by Madrid and the Spanish government. Beginning with the Francoist era, Catalan culture was suppressed, along with the historical language of the region, which ceased to exist in the public sphere, in order to create “cohesion.” Catalans, incensed by this repression of their identity, began to advocate for their independence from the Spanish state. Madrid attempted to appease this sentiment via the granting of autonomy to the region, but after the courts considered part of the agreement illegal, the secessionist elements began to grow in size and clout. As a result of Spain’s economic system, Catalonia also feels as if Madrid is capitalizing on its development at the expense of the region.

As a response to these grievances, the Generalitat de Catalunya decided to hold a referendum, nonbinding, back in 2014. Though voter turnout was quite low at 40%, over 80% of the votes were in favor of independence. This time, however, the Catalans consider it binding, regardless of what Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s PM, says. Spain, for its part, has not backed down, claiming that the referendum does not comply with the Constitution, and has threatened officials in the regional government with fines and even suspensions from office if they go through.

The effects of this vote, if somehow accepted at any point, are immense. Catalonia would not only be granted statehood, but would open the door for more secessionist movements across Europe to potentially gain more clout and forcing referendums such as this. Scotland has been considering another one following the failed vote back in 2014. In Belgium, regions such as Flanders and Wallonia, who have historically advocated for the same thing, could receive further acceptance of their platform. Even in Spain, there are other regions that have advocated for separation, the Basque Country in particular. All in all, a fracturing of Europe could occur.

However, none of this is set in stone. Multiple cities in the Barcelona area have refused to host voting booths due to concerns about law enforcement and protection of employees, and the ballot boxes are being hidden due to fears pertaining to their confiscation. Rajoy is not willing to budge, and has even had to resist members of his party who’ve called seizing administrative control of the region. For the time being, Catalonia remains part of Spain, but no one knows just how much longer that will be.