Given civil wars and referendums, it is possible that we could be redrawing the map a few times in the next decade. Here are five new countries that we could be seeing by the year 2025.
1. Catalonia
Catalonia is an autonomous region in northeastern Spain, bordering France, Andorra and the Mediterranean Sea. The region contains Barcelona, the second most populous city in Spain. Excluding Barcelona, the people of Catalonia speak Catalan, not Spanish. Catalonia is also the industrial center of Spain because of its location on the Mediterranean and proximity to the rest of Europe. So when accounting for differences in customs, food, language and business, it is easy to see why Catalonia may leave Spain. Support for independence among Catalonians right now is at about half, but when I went to Barcelona last summer, you could barely see a Spanish flag. There were countless Catalonian flags hanging from balconies and in windows. A referendum will be held at some point in 2017.
2. Greenland
Greenland, the world’s largest island and is politically part of Denmark, but geographically close to Canada. Greenland has an extremely small population with a high concentration of citizens living in the capital, Nuuk. A referendum in 2008 passed with 75 percent support to grant Greenland higher autonomy from Denmark. Greenland is extremely different from Denmark in terms of language, custom and EU membership, but it is reliant on Denmark for its economic benefits. Many people have hypothesized that 2021 could be the year that Greenland gains independence, as that year is the 300th anniversary of Denmark’s colonial rule.
3. Somaliland
Somaliland is the upper panhandle of the country of Somalia, located on Africa’s eastern coast. After a long civil war in Somalia, the region of Somaliland broke away, forming its own currency, banks, military and government, a more democratic one than Somalia’s. Though Somaliland does have international support, many countries are hesitant to formally declare their support in fear that it would drive Somalia further into ruins. The capital of Somaliland was already bombed in a 2008 terrorist attack, but if Somaliland can convince its international partners that its elections are more democratic than Somalia's and that it can function without the support of the lower part of the country, it could definitely be added to the list of 196 countries.
4. New Caledonia
New Caledonia is an island in the southwest Pacific owned by France. Though the islanders have French citizenship and benefits, the distance they are from France, their language, currency, customs and history have shifted New Caledonians away from feeling like French citizens. The Noumea Accord of 1998 gave the island more autonomy and the ability to have a referendum. The population supported the increased autonomy by 72 percent in 1998. After postponements and failed attempts, the territory is having a referendum in 2018 and the polls showed that support for independence is high. France will probably support their independence if the referendum passes.
5. Bougainville
Bougainville is an autonomous region in the far east of Papua New Guinea; an island country above Australia. Bougainville is technically part of the Solomon Islands archipelago and the disconnect between the geographic, economic and cultural connection to the Solomon Islands, but the political connection to Papua New Guinea has caused tension. A peace agreement was signed in 2000 after violence ensued on the island, granting Bougainville more autonomy. If Bougainville can meet some requirements such as establishing an internationally viable economy and controlling the influx of weapons, Papua New Guinea agreed to allow Bougainville to have a referendum for independence on the tentative date of June 15, 2019.
Honorable Mentions:
Quebec: the French-speaking province of Canada never truly felt the connection to the rest of the English-speaking country.
Scotland: maybe another referendum would convince voters to leave; it was only 55 percent to 45 percent in 2014.
Veneto: a referendum was supposed to occur in 2013 and one could occur in the future.
Crimea: the Ukraine-Russia tension over the region could result in independence.
Kurdistan: the Kurds may finally end their reign as a “nation without a state.”