On January 24, 2017, or last Tuesday, just about everyone across Hollywood woke up a little earlier than usual to devour the list of Oscar nominations released by the Academy. Some celebrated, some cried, and some banged the tables with their fists because their favorite movie wasn’t nominated this year. But, this isn’t a perfect world. If it were, then Leonardo DiCaprio wouldn’t have had to wait two decades to win his Oscar, we would have had more women of color winning Best Actress after Halle Berry did 15 years ago, and The Handmaiden would have been nominated in a Best Film in a Foreign Language this year (The Age of Shadows was submitted to represent South Korea in its place). I’ll still be watching the show this year anyway.

What’s interesting, though, is the inclusion of of 6 Black actors and filmmakers in some of the major Oscar categories -- not because The Academy wanted to control the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, but because these films really, really, really deserve it. The Oscars’ increasing diversity also includes Dev Patel, nominated for Best Supporting Actor for the movie Lion.

Without further ado, here are my predictions (and preferences) for this year’s round of the Academy Awards.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling in La La Land

Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington in Fences

Predicted winner: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea or Denzel Washington, Fences.

Other possibilities: Look, I really don’t like Casey Affleck as a human being, and there are many, many, many, many good reasons I say this. Yet, even with my own (justified) bias and distaste towards Affleck, his acting chops in Manchester are too prolific for him to leave the Oscars empty-handed. If the Academy chooses to recognize Affleck’s sexual harassment allegations and decide against handing him the award (I would actually be very happy if they did this, but that’s just me), perhaps the next best options would be either Ryan Gosling in La La Land or Denzel Washington in Fences. In the case of an alternative scenario, the latter option seems to be more likely.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Mahershala Ali in Moonlight

Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel in Lion

Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals

Predicted winner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight.

Other possibilities: I honestly can’t imagine anyone else, and I’m sure the critics agree. Juan, the caring crack dealer, has captured all of our hearts.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Isabelle Huppert in Elle

Ruth Negga in Loving

Natalie Portman in Jackie

Emma Stone in La La Land

Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted winner: Natalie Portman, Jackie.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Isabelle Huppert, Elle.

Other possibilities: As NPR states, “Huppert is icy and ferocious, and she earns our sympathy while remaining unlikable,” which is why her performance as Michèle was my favorite out of all the Best Actress nominees this year. No wonder she won a Golden Globe for Best Actress (Drama). Still, Natalie Portman’s riveting portrayal of Jackie Onassis has been constantly cited as the critics' favorite, thus making her the strongest contender on this list. Do note, however: if Emma Stone’s recent Golden Globe win is of any indication, do not count her out for this round of the Academy Awards.

Speaking of which, where’s Amy Adams?

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Viola Davis in Fences

Naomie Harris in Moonlight

Nicole Kidman in Lion

Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea

Predicted winner: Viola Davis, Fences.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Viola Davis, Fences.

Other possibilities: This one looks pretty decided to me, unless the Academy chooses to honor Naomie Harris for her role as Paula in Moonlight. While the chance of this occurring is small, I would honestly be happy with either option.

Best animated feature film of the year

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Predicted winner: Zootopia.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Zootopia.

Other possibilities: Moana also seems to be a solid frontrunner in this category, but my guess is that the race will tip towards Zootopia, which explores social themes such as discrimination and social stereotypes in a children’s movie. Plus, Shakira’s in it.

Achievement in cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Predicted winner: La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: La La Land.

Other possibilities: Arrival could pull off the upset with its sweet marriage of poetic imagery and sci-fi strangeness, but this would be, in my opinion, very unlikely.

Achievement in directing

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land.

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Predicted winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight.

Other possibilities: Just like the Best Picture category, this seems like a battle between La La Land and Moonlight. While Jenkins has emerged as the critical favorite in this category, the Academy will probably play it safe and pick Chazelle for La La Land.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original score)

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Predicted winner: La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: La La Land.

Other possibilities: Is this even a competition? This category has La La Land written all over it.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original song)

"Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land

"Can't Stop The Feeling" from Trolls

"City Of Stars" from La La Land

"The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story

"How Far I'll Go" from Moana

Predicted winner: “City Of Stars,” La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land.

Other possibilities: Sorry, Lin Manuel Miranda -- this category is mostly La La Land territory. I’m sure Lin will earn his EGOT in the very near future, though. He’s already got the EGT part down, plus a Pulitzer prize and a MacArthur “genius” grant. Lin is still my hero, and I’m sure he’s... not throwing away his shot (okay, I’ll walk myself out).

Best motion picture of the year

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted winner: La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Moonlight.

Other possibilities: This will be a close battle between La La Land and Moonlight, but it’s slightly possible that Manchester By The Sea or Hidden Figures could pull off the upset (don’t count on it, though). If Moonlight ends up winning Best Picture, it would be the first LGBTQ movie in history to win the category (Brokeback Mountain and Milk were very close). Unfortunately, a Best Picture win for Moonlight sounds a little too good to be true, since the Academy’s preference towards movies about movies is difficult to cast aside. I’m still crossing my fingers for Moonlight, though.

Adapted screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

Predicted winner: Moonlight.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: Moonlight.

Other possibilities: The Academy may choose to award August Wilson’s work in Fences as a chance to thank the writer a dozen years after his death. But, while Fences was a play to begin with, Moonlight was converted from a story to a screenplay, which does seem like a greater achievement.

Original screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Predicted winner: La La Land.

If I were running the Oscars, I would pick: La La Land.

Other possibilities: Manchester could pull through as a dark horse, but for the most part, it seems that La La Land will nab this one in the bag.